{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b400ee5a-b4f9-4598-9405-824cbd01b698", "symbol": "MTVA", "name": "MetaVia Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.631, "architecture_energy": 24.969, "architecture_maturity": 35.445, "architecture_confidence": 66.093, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.83, "rotation_up": 15.08, "upward_expansion": 7.67, "deceleration": 60.82, "rotation_down": 51.67, "downward_expansion": 69.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.518, 1.566182, 1.72719, 1.707333 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.49, "trend_reference": 1.778, "distance_from_trend": -0.16198, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.061116, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.935389, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -74.054499, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.181319, "excess_performance": -0.368772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16198, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.568226, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.935389, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023663, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.740545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116804, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181319, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.134475, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 292063, "relative_activity": 0.023989, "balance": 4.134475, "dry_up": 0.225066, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.457331, "annualized_volatility": 2.023107, "from_high_reference": -0.921698, "from_low_reference": 0.542283 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.778, "fair_value_reference": 23.061116, "structural_low": 0.9661, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.061765, "positive_rate": 0.276596, "directional_follow_through": 0.723404, "median_excess_return": -0.081903, "regime_survival": 0.893617, "best_return": 1.467949, "worst_return": -0.870936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.302941, "positive_rate": 0.117647, "directional_follow_through": 0.882353, "median_excess_return": -0.307835, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.526786, "worst_return": -0.919704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.561503, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.656161, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.099552, "worst_return": -0.95739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 23.982755, "relative_strength": -71.244419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.362611, "energy": 28.745455, "activity_lines": [ 1.638, 1.834182, 1.794095, 1.862828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.48, "volume": 538036, "typical_volume": 12232567.05, "trend": 2.2715, "fair_value": 23.701729, "relative_strength": -74.032157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.304597, "energy": 29.011992, "activity_lines": [ 1.598, 1.737636, 1.772857, 1.795183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.42, "volume": 396532, "typical_volume": 12220763.95, "trend": 2.000167, "fair_value": 23.400745, "relative_strength": -74.630963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.031658, "energy": 24.780052, "activity_lines": [ 1.546, 1.623455, 1.746238, 1.740247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.49, "volume": 292063, "typical_volume": 12174695.5, "trend": 1.778, "fair_value": 23.061116, "relative_strength": -74.054499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.630845, "energy": 24.969039, "activity_lines": [ 1.518, 1.566182, 1.72719, 1.707333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }