{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b404198e-99b0-4c45-9269-da24e765f968", "symbol": "002822", "name": "Shenzhen Zhongzhuang Construction Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.815, "architecture_energy": 8.334, "architecture_maturity": 15.845, "architecture_confidence": 50.999, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.5, "rotation_up": 27.4, "upward_expansion": 24.83, "deceleration": 62.07, "rotation_down": 30.48, "downward_expansion": 53.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.056667, 3.033273, 3.021762, 3.087634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.2, "trend_reference": 3.219, "distance_from_trend": -0.005902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.248782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015015, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.42081, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.111111, "excess_performance": -0.118511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005902, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092131, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015015, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067093, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104208, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192638, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.57304, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46308989, "relative_activity": 0.929277, "balance": 0.57304, "dry_up": 1.032499, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084615, "annualized_volatility": 0.500012, "from_high_reference": -0.282511, "from_low_reference": 0.300813 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.219, "fair_value_reference": 3.248782, "structural_low": 2.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.015873, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.001883, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.253086, "worst_return": -0.40048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043098, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.05633, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 1.12963, "worst_return": -0.454338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.042827, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.025868, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.246914, "worst_return": -0.338983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.181762, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.138534, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.002309, "worst_return": -0.258065, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.260274, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.254167, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027473, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.275862, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02719, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.063063, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078788, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.843513, "energy": 26.217844, "activity_lines": [ 3.108, 3.0, 3.039381, 3.138215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.8, "volume": 56448959, "typical_volume": 51066792.5, "trend": 3.277, "fair_value": 3.262179, "relative_strength": -19.586615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.133218, "energy": 28.738151, "activity_lines": [ 3.035333, 2.968727, 3.010476, 3.105054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.05, "volume": 42797354, "typical_volume": 49553745.6, "trend": 3.243, "fair_value": 3.255128, "relative_strength": -10.61961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.958446, "energy": 14.066355, "activity_lines": [ 3.026, 2.987091, 3.00819, 3.090409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.2, "volume": 46308989, "typical_volume": 49833351.4, "trend": 3.219, "fair_value": 3.248782, "relative_strength": -10.42081, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.814604, "energy": 8.333682, "activity_lines": [ 3.056667, 3.033273, 3.021762, 3.087634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }