{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b409e72f-a807-493c-a206-f902c41f5ce5", "symbol": "000828", "name": "Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.479, "architecture_energy": 18.376, "architecture_maturity": 33.121, "architecture_confidence": 63.892, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.62, "rotation_up": 38.66, "upward_expansion": 25.84, "deceleration": 41.22, "rotation_down": 20.95, "downward_expansion": 48.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.928667, 9.815091, 9.836651, 9.925082 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.94, "trend_reference": 10.081283, "distance_from_trend": -0.014014, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.633131, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.031856, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.526284, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.065924, "excess_performance": -0.073324, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014014, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035295, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.031856, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03131, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085263, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141373, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065924, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.743406, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27223978, "relative_activity": 1.090736, "balance": 0.743406, "dry_up": 1.287591, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03732, "annualized_volatility": 0.170846, "from_high_reference": -0.173643, "from_low_reference": 0.059701 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.081283, "fair_value_reference": 9.633131, "structural_low": 9.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.008419, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.013569, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.271617, "worst_return": -0.09585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.037433, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.020784, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.286985, "worst_return": -0.11, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.062459, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.251207, "worst_return": -0.157049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 30230863, "typical_volume": 25430553.25, "trend": 10.134569, "fair_value": 9.598444, "relative_strength": -7.314004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.400977, "energy": 50.606159, "activity_lines": [ 9.65, 9.720983, 9.818123, 9.953633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.81, "volume": 39208538, "typical_volume": 25059695.85, "trend": 10.110724, "fair_value": 9.609171, "relative_strength": -7.358257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.323412, "energy": 29.563614, "activity_lines": [ 9.716667, 9.722909, 9.80688, 9.932693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.15, "volume": 31885979, "typical_volume": 25080490.8, "trend": 10.097244, "fair_value": 9.622022, "relative_strength": -2.235799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.3879, "energy": 11.94142, "activity_lines": [ 9.882667, 9.789273, 9.83078, 9.935227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.94, "volume": 27223978, "typical_volume": 24959277.6, "trend": 10.081283, "fair_value": 9.633131, "relative_strength": -8.526284, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.479325, "energy": 18.375717, "activity_lines": [ 9.928667, 9.815091, 9.836651, 9.925082 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }