{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b40b1bf5-e865-4fd6-87c5-983a865571ff", "symbol": "CDGP", "name": "Chapel Down Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.428, "architecture_energy": 37.764, "architecture_maturity": 49.896, "architecture_confidence": 84.867, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.62, "rotation_up": 48.6, "upward_expansion": 80.63, "deceleration": 62.22, "rotation_down": 25.95, "downward_expansion": 4.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.440667, 0.440218, 0.421152, 0.401822 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.445, "trend_reference": 0.381733, "distance_from_trend": 0.165735, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.477822, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068691, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.297198, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.171053, "excess_performance": 0.119817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.165735, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061845, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068691, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237128, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052972, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246724, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.171053, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.905042, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 333596, "relative_activity": 1.036139, "balance": 4.905042, "dry_up": 0.967884, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095938, "annualized_volatility": 0.322948, "from_high_reference": -0.053191, "from_low_reference": 0.483333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.381733, "fair_value_reference": 0.477822, "structural_low": 0.3, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.028736, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.0512, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.057471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.103448, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.161045, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.103448, "worst_return": -0.103448, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.206897, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.319075, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.206897, "worst_return": -0.206897, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.633947, "energy": 46.418855, "activity_lines": [ 0.437667, 0.432727, 0.398929, 0.384968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.445, "volume": 267790, "typical_volume": 324600.1, "trend": 0.3749, "fair_value": 0.47865, "relative_strength": 7.220302, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.88887, "energy": 43.834686, "activity_lines": [ 0.44, 0.437691, 0.405562, 0.389652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.445, "volume": 211702, "typical_volume": 313729.2, "trend": 0.3774, "fair_value": 0.478407, "relative_strength": 6.189939, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.738722, "energy": 43.573816, "activity_lines": [ 0.442, 0.440655, 0.411767, 0.394174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.43, "volume": 433394, "typical_volume": 318261.8, "trend": 0.379067, "fair_value": 0.478058, "relative_strength": 1.758795, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.761827, "energy": 35.347116, "activity_lines": [ 0.439, 0.439436, 0.415995, 0.397568 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.445, "volume": 333596, "typical_volume": 321960.55, "trend": 0.381733, "fair_value": 0.477822, "relative_strength": 5.297198, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.428143, "energy": 37.764207, "activity_lines": [ 0.440667, 0.440218, 0.421152, 0.401822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }