{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b40c7365-afe5-4b81-a508-f2add0fc8efe", "symbol": "688707", "name": "Guizhou Zhenhua E-chem Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.769, "architecture_energy": 84.201, "architecture_maturity": 26.332, "architecture_confidence": 88.957, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.48, "rotation_up": 9.6, "upward_expansion": 21.25, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 74.85, "downward_expansion": 94.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.326667, 11.084727, 12.722714, 13.302108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.73, "trend_reference": 13.919667, "distance_from_trend": -0.229148, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.370303, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.253321, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.627919, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.239546, "excess_performance": -0.196343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.229148, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056507, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.253321, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.357136, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246279, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.370903, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.239546, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.661249, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30639502, "relative_activity": 0.470632, "balance": 0.661249, "dry_up": 0.573625, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132411, "annualized_volatility": 0.546709, "from_high_reference": -0.430769, "from_low_reference": 0.155005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.919667, "fair_value_reference": 14.370303, "structural_low": 9.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.051075, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.052847, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.324818, "worst_return": -0.243332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.22109, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.195632, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.440719, "worst_return": -0.326173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.437344, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.33097, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.029206, "worst_return": -0.44794, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 65660679.0, "trend": 14.148, "fair_value": 14.636685, "relative_strength": -30.395068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.775113, "energy": 87.734198, "activity_lines": [ 10.537333, 11.830909, 13.352429, 13.757054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.39, "volume": 31749737, "typical_volume": 65388495.7, "trend": 14.023667, "fair_value": 14.49826, "relative_strength": -25.411438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.393239, "energy": 85.570155, "activity_lines": [ 10.302667, 11.371636, 13.011476, 13.514602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.73, "volume": 30639502, "typical_volume": 65102942.25, "trend": 13.919667, "fair_value": 14.370303, "relative_strength": -24.627919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.769057, "energy": 84.201192, "activity_lines": [ 10.326667, 11.084727, 12.722714, 13.302108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }