{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b40fc485-a142-4c63-b2fe-d59ebfbc9b2a", "symbol": "QTEX", "name": "QTREX Quantum Ltd.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.915, "architecture_energy": 17.143, "architecture_maturity": 54.086, "architecture_confidence": 80.704, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.33, "rotation_up": 21.75, "upward_expansion": 52.54, "deceleration": 89.6, "rotation_down": 37.48, "downward_expansion": 20.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.042887, 1.233069, 1.219426, 1.072152 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.05, "trend_reference": 0.91764, "distance_from_trend": 0.14424, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.138903, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07806, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.427242, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.472238, "excess_performance": 0.284784, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.14424, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144209, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07806, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.543179, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064272, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.530623, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.472238, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.873529, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9009194, "relative_activity": 0.09728, "balance": 4.873529, "dry_up": 0.135434, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.819656, "annualized_volatility": 2.761852, "from_high_reference": -0.727273, "from_low_reference": 2.710247 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.91764, "fair_value_reference": 1.138903, "structural_low": 0.283, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.109205, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.116503, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.150498, "worst_return": -0.347826, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.037699, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.089904, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.007246, "worst_return": -0.082645, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.368008, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.436819, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.231884, "worst_return": -0.504132, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.384058, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.534416, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.384058, "worst_return": -0.384058, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.364214, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.198113, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.184874, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065041, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082645, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.154545, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024565, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.213115, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.199652, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"volume": 11414049, "typical_volume": 90776708.25, "trend": 0.917123, "fair_value": 1.147829, "relative_strength": 13.97665, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.460412, "energy": 21.531484, "activity_lines": [ 1.487333, 1.548164, 1.236664, 1.066581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.8811, "volume": 20237338, "typical_volume": 91750851.45, "trend": 0.914157, "fair_value": 1.144503, "relative_strength": -18.457521, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.09342, "energy": 15.584963, "activity_lines": [ 1.252367, 1.438691, 1.22639, 1.064257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9, "volume": 9510128, "typical_volume": 92196142.3, "trend": 0.913477, "fair_value": 1.141402, "relative_strength": -16.224301, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.185673, "energy": 14.59367, "activity_lines": [ 1.09896, 1.323816, 1.216577, 1.063344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.05, "volume": 9009194, "typical_volume": 92610865.95, "trend": 0.91764, "fair_value": 1.138903, "relative_strength": -6.427242, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.914501, "energy": 17.143044, "activity_lines": [ 1.042887, 1.233069, 1.219426, 1.072152 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }