{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4114f3d-1fd8-4e00-9e42-d582a884de45", "symbol": "HII", "name": "Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.305, "architecture_energy": 27.952, "architecture_maturity": 78.066, "architecture_confidence": 80.173, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.11, "rotation_up": 27.92, "upward_expansion": 22.57, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 28.06, "downward_expansion": 61.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 307.688, 298.439455, 306.983975, 327.77047 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 324.48, "trend_reference": 355.91766, "distance_from_trend": -0.088328, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 262.684832, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235245, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.153997, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.178055, "excess_performance": -0.30368, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029659, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235245, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 5.9e-05, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13154, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.178055, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.702196, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2570163, "relative_activity": 1.036002, "balance": 0.702196, "dry_up": 1.16183, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065098, "annualized_volatility": 0.376566, "from_high_reference": -0.29145, "from_low_reference": 0.256456 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 355.91766, "fair_value_reference": 262.684832, "structural_low": 263.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.04438, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.003336, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.192196, "worst_return": -0.159974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.067542, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.031302, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.175041, "worst_return": -0.101341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000437, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054891, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.35876, "worst_return": -0.217372, "sufficient": false 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2078210, "typical_volume": 2420682.1, "trend": 358.592847, "fair_value": 261.243735, "relative_strength": -19.412158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.031757, "energy": 61.267234, "activity_lines": [ 282.515333, 286.395647, 307.972005, 332.000594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 326.45, "volume": 4470585, "typical_volume": 2547238.8, "trend": 357.904074, "fair_value": 261.970718, "relative_strength": -9.534808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.130946, "energy": 41.311262, "activity_lines": [ 296.912, 292.662545, 307.363688, 329.926862 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 324.48, "volume": 2570163, "typical_volume": 2480848.4, "trend": 355.91766, "fair_value": 262.684832, "relative_strength": -13.153997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.304888, "energy": 27.951522, "activity_lines": [ 307.688, 298.439455, 306.983975, 327.77047 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }