{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b41961a7-6986-46c7-91b1-c799231f525f", "symbol": "CSCO", "name": "Cisco Systems, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.679, "architecture_energy": 42.048, "architecture_maturity": 79.118, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.46, "rotation_up": 38.27, "upward_expansion": 61.74, "deceleration": 88.29, "rotation_down": 27.7, "downward_expansion": 23.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 2026.586654, 2028.50633, 1976.392899, 1853.543529 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2076.0, "trend_reference": 1692.66108, "distance_from_trend": 0.226471, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1193.682756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.739156, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 32.632993, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.42237, "excess_performance": 0.477037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.226471, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145958, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.739156, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.226028, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.32633, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.2105, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.42237, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.071814, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10266, "relative_activity": 4.159222, "balance": 11.071814, "dry_up": 1.429555, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056906, "annualized_volatility": 0.4039, "from_high_reference": -0.073877, "from_low_reference": 0.701827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1692.66108, "fair_value_reference": 1193.682756, "structural_low": 1277.602336, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.011963, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.005046, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.170904, "worst_return": -0.134112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.027344, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.026271, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.388703, "worst_return": -0.128597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.045694, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.115128, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.115541, "worst_return": -0.162851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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29.261696, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.476395, "energy": 41.13215, "activity_lines": [ 2001.420736, 2023.085256, 1952.047421, 1827.215394 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2076.0, "volume": 10266, "typical_volume": 2468.25, "trend": 1692.66108, "fair_value": 1193.682756, "relative_strength": 32.632993, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.679288, "energy": 42.04833, "activity_lines": [ 2026.586654, 2028.50633, 1976.392899, 1853.543529 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }