{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4369843-371b-48d8-b617-14dd9572de31", "symbol": "CEF", "name": "Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.569, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.235, "architecture_energy": 46.355, "architecture_maturity": 41.539, "architecture_confidence": 95.55, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.05, "rotation_up": 25.04, "upward_expansion": 6.79, "deceleration": 58.5, "rotation_down": 53.88, "downward_expansion": 82.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.230667, 41.261818, 43.311667, 44.906473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 43.58, "trend_reference": 47.126667, "distance_from_trend": -0.075258, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.130128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.446393, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.838336, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.110975, "excess_performance": -0.2366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075258, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009403, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.446393, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.34599, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108383, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224091, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110975, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.30529, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3542109, "relative_activity": 1.045321, "balance": 0.30529, "dry_up": 0.911898, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067796, "annualized_volatility": 0.360236, "from_high_reference": -0.289997, "from_low_reference": 0.425114 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.126667, "fair_value_reference": 30.130128, "structural_low": 38.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.007467, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.003079, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.095635, "worst_return": -0.061335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.048414, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.053492, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.128173, "worst_return": -0.003086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.124691, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.117415, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15, "worst_return": 0.116305, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080759, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.101196, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049433, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013374, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082902, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049553, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.714881, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079915, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078446, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.76, "volume": 2512522, "typical_volume": 2078244.9, "trend": 18.391, "fair_value": 18.081114, "relative_strength": -7.291683, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.878808, "energy": 71.659671, "activity_lines": [ 40.335333, 41.509455, 43.965619, 45.630194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.01, "volume": 2948424, "typical_volume": 3502247.05, "trend": 47.301667, "fair_value": 29.965064, "relative_strength": -15.101359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.349857, "energy": 61.939996, "activity_lines": [ 40.174667, 40.994545, 43.442048, 45.146581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.58, "volume": 3542109, "typical_volume": 3388538.0, "trend": 47.126667, "fair_value": 30.130128, "relative_strength": -10.838336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.235298, "energy": 46.354511, "activity_lines": [ 41.230667, 41.261818, 43.311667, 44.906473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }