{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4395ba9-68d0-474a-937d-c8626c75648f", "symbol": "BNKK", "name": "Bonk, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.444, "architecture_energy": 77.21, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 22.68, "upward_expansion": 18.0, "deceleration": 40.45, "rotation_down": 66.74, "downward_expansion": 96.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.059093, 1.194171, 1.531264, 1.891379 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.05, "trend_reference": 2.48322, "distance_from_trend": -0.577162, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.998837, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.968181, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -83.331392, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.7375, "excess_performance": -0.924954, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.577162, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318483, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.968181, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038111, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.833314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04327, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.7375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.444543, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 304363, "relative_activity": 0.244014, "balance": 0.444543, "dry_up": 0.32019, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.346352, "annualized_volatility": 0.76542, "from_high_reference": -0.970588, "from_low_reference": 0.158173 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.48322, "fair_value_reference": 32.998837, "structural_low": 0.9066, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.122836, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.116018, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 1.72973, "worst_return": -0.525397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.294534, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.350955, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.016304, "worst_return": -0.645859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.362657, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.455364, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.250152, "worst_return": -0.634033, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.168675, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.294872, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.031755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128713, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": 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"trend": 2.761333, "fair_value": 33.657471, "relative_strength": -86.614467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.166054, "energy": 63.496176, "activity_lines": [ 1.394667, 1.532364, 1.912952, 2.297398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.21, "volume": 657231, "typical_volume": 1252682.25, "trend": 2.670333, "fair_value": 33.53483, "relative_strength": -85.607911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.327479, "energy": 67.527311, "activity_lines": [ 1.324, 1.443091, 1.814238, 2.197312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.12, "volume": 271168, "typical_volume": 1243189.8, "trend": 2.608, "fair_value": 33.398891, "relative_strength": -85.425816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.149439, "energy": 75.769173, "activity_lines": [ 1.232667, 1.359091, 1.719667, 2.09729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9066, "volume": 364752, "typical_volume": 1243978.6, "trend": 2.54022, "fair_value": 33.22544, "relative_strength": -86.855088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.164945, "energy": 84.165506, "activity_lines": [ 1.103533, 1.254836, 1.614105, 1.987523 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.05, "volume": 304363, "typical_volume": 1247315.4, "trend": 2.48322, "fair_value": 32.998837, "relative_strength": -83.331392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.444431, "energy": 77.209746, "activity_lines": [ 1.059093, 1.194171, 1.531264, 1.891379 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }