{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b43abd01-6337-4d0b-bd0a-b348bc95411a", "symbol": "002236", "name": "Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.695, "architecture_energy": 21.248, "architecture_maturity": 54.228, "architecture_confidence": 60.557, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.43, "rotation_up": 21.18, "upward_expansion": 8.25, "deceleration": 60.26, "rotation_down": 36.68, "downward_expansion": 64.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.646666, 16.577273, 16.777535, 17.017473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.84, "trend_reference": 17.511567, "distance_from_trend": -0.03835, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.614095, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.013597, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.437984, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.09329, "excess_performance": -0.100689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03835, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040516, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.013597, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045262, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081489, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09329, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.769312, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 239980383, "relative_activity": 1.46445, "balance": 1.769312, "dry_up": 1.367848, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063334, "annualized_volatility": 0.282445, "from_high_reference": -0.2096, "from_low_reference": 0.066165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.511567, "fair_value_reference": 16.614095, "structural_low": 15.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.016213, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.011265, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.209678, "worst_return": -0.149378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016984, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002032, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.331953, "worst_return": -0.217781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010824, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061438, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.242782, "worst_return": -0.203419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-12.875214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.956903, "energy": 30.56253, "activity_lines": [ 16.672, 16.681073, 16.989964, 17.318491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.02, "volume": 214112849, "typical_volume": 154362419.3, "trend": 17.695966, "fair_value": 16.6581, "relative_strength": -11.018828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.62973, "energy": 34.679363, "activity_lines": [ 16.526, 16.53314, 16.876312, 17.205107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.43, "volume": 182403956, "typical_volume": 153132641.25, "trend": 17.633688, "fair_value": 16.643603, "relative_strength": -8.859454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.642712, "energy": 23.296621, "activity_lines": [ 16.512, 16.492093, 16.815262, 17.123431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.719999, "volume": 260103589, "typical_volume": 158805203.1, "trend": 17.568668, "fair_value": 16.624353, "relative_strength": -5.619012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.489057, "energy": 20.906664, "activity_lines": [ 16.584, 16.516727, 16.788349, 17.064484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.84, "volume": 239980383, "typical_volume": 163870708.3, "trend": 17.511567, "fair_value": 16.614095, "relative_strength": -9.437984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.695149, "energy": 21.247564, "activity_lines": [ 16.646666, 16.577273, 16.777535, 17.017473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }