{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b446fcef-00c2-4922-8451-498f2ef31143", "symbol": "002373", "name": "China Transinfo Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.991, "architecture_energy": 41.879, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.29, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.57, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 19.79, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 39.35, "downward_expansion": 69.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.626, 7.496, 7.843684, 8.443991 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.83, "trend_reference": 9.462932, "distance_from_trend": -0.172561, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.9997, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.216977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.070902, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.363646, "excess_performance": -0.371046, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172561, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113099, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.216977, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100196, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.260709, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032168, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363646, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.676279, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113596690, "relative_activity": 1.236351, "balance": 0.676279, "dry_up": 1.282409, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071097, "annualized_volatility": 0.30178, "from_high_reference": -0.431298, "from_low_reference": 0.138081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.462932, "fair_value_reference": 9.9997, "structural_low": 6.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.010981, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.014611, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.264151, "worst_return": -0.234259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.067388, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.003131, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.282325, "worst_return": -0.382646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048609, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041123, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.806257, "worst_return": -0.298009, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012785, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039305, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049002, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05921, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127395, "active": false 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.767941, "energy": 67.053151, "activity_lines": [ 7.244667, 7.431607, 8.090504, 8.83872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.27, "volume": 119685500, "typical_volume": 91238098.5, "trend": 9.723497, "fair_value": 10.06463, "relative_strength": -30.174354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.166854, "energy": 63.787783, "activity_lines": [ 7.229333, 7.359091, 7.953799, 8.672103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.95, "volume": 116864524, "typical_volume": 91334985.7, "trend": 9.59223, "fair_value": 10.030108, "relative_strength": -21.791424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.438138, "energy": 53.508973, "activity_lines": [ 7.473333, 7.433273, 7.898287, 8.557684 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.83, "volume": 113596690, "typical_volume": 91880581.0, "trend": 9.462932, "fair_value": 9.9997, "relative_strength": -26.070902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.991118, "energy": 41.87886, "activity_lines": [ 7.626, 7.496, 7.843684, 8.443991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }