{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b44fd336-10ea-4bf7-adf9-53f59b0582a2", "symbol": "601015", "name": "Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.427, "architecture_energy": 36.779, "architecture_maturity": 84.027, "architecture_confidence": 82.414, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.24, "rotation_up": 27.14, "upward_expansion": 17.88, "deceleration": 46.88, "rotation_down": 35.96, "downward_expansion": 65.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.201333, 3.153273, 3.361381, 3.648903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.34, "trend_reference": 3.955, "distance_from_trend": -0.155499, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.675321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.091236, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.883805, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.270742, "excess_performance": -0.227539, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155499, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06707, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.091236, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140585, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138838, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065289, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.270742, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.518925, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 314684962, "relative_activity": 1.169589, "balance": 1.518925, "dry_up": 0.909222, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109627, "annualized_volatility": 0.586202, "from_high_reference": -0.431973, "from_low_reference": 0.180212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.955, "fair_value_reference": 3.675321, "structural_low": 2.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.011368, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.029902, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.162426, "worst_return": -0.25679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005423, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.039423, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.335593, "worst_return": -0.183333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.13313, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.078618, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.39661, "worst_return": -0.201987, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025157, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078788, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008523, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01699, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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3.621905, 3.861269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.99, "volume": 225953033, "typical_volume": 377815126.2, "trend": 4.000667, "fair_value": 3.6975, "relative_strength": -20.245983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.743363, "energy": 85.546431, "activity_lines": [ 3.002, 3.183818, 3.525952, 3.79443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.1, "volume": 275435541, "typical_volume": 341427481.9, "trend": 3.980667, "fair_value": 3.689167, "relative_strength": -18.107173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.018887, "energy": 73.967535, "activity_lines": [ 3.033333, 3.140364, 3.449905, 3.736323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.25, "volume": 162452698, "typical_volume": 302686961.2, "trend": 3.964333, "fair_value": 3.681987, "relative_strength": -14.136171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.208218, "energy": 51.319045, "activity_lines": [ 3.114, 3.136, 3.396619, 3.689183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.34, "volume": 314684962, "typical_volume": 269055912.55, "trend": 3.955, "fair_value": 3.675321, "relative_strength": -13.883805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.426927, "energy": 36.779282, "activity_lines": [ 3.201333, 3.153273, 3.361381, 3.648903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }