{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4528c11-26c8-417b-ab38-8da611429fe3", "symbol": "SPRX", "name": "SPEAR ALPHA ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.406, "architecture_energy": 19.325, "architecture_maturity": 63.108, "architecture_confidence": 89.182, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.52, "rotation_up": 18.71, "upward_expansion": 43.38, "deceleration": 84.59, "rotation_down": 43.76, "downward_expansion": 35.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.625893, 47.935498, 48.77751, 46.92949 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 48.82, "trend_reference": 44.653917, "distance_from_trend": 0.093297, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.581103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.650378, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.265454, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.213549, "excess_performance": 0.026096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093297, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087693, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.650378, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056653, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022655, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021436, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.213549, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.243208, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 607877, "relative_activity": 0.90927, "balance": 1.243208, "dry_up": 1.016439, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138359, "annualized_volatility": 0.448322, "from_high_reference": -0.173942, "from_low_reference": 0.547385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.653917, "fair_value_reference": 29.581103, "structural_low": 32.75, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.013746, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.014622, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.165247, "worst_return": -0.171078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046442, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.029207, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.407504, "worst_return": -0.012104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.278899, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.132754, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.390467, "worst_return": -0.03113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.257194, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.653407, "worst_return": -0.139019, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104578, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097585, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039525, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.154767, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.187188, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.195471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.361267, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181651, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.086567, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04716, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.152643, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11184, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107029, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.06, "volume": 83200, "typical_volume": 97518.9, "trend": 16.047717, "fair_value": 16.861163, "relative_strength": 0.114057, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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45.917033, "energy": 36.359709, "activity_lines": [ 52.553333, 52.83318, 49.367009, 46.785261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.1, "volume": 538822, "typical_volume": 656167.9, "trend": 44.157133, "fair_value": 29.070893, "relative_strength": -3.459734, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.240835, "energy": 19.210044, "activity_lines": [ 49.386, 51.374, 49.196041, 46.792156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.5728, "volume": 414204, "typical_volume": 634410.8, "trend": 44.306263, "fair_value": 29.226103, "relative_strength": -3.260202, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.329715, "energy": 19.128281, "activity_lines": [ 46.790933, 49.851964, 48.9504, 46.754457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.58, "volume": 1157188, "typical_volume": 662191.55, "trend": 44.38073, "fair_value": 29.379885, "relative_strength": -6.080365, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.596881, "energy": 21.282469, "activity_lines": [ 44.82208, 48.23264, 48.578837, 46.643085 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.82, "volume": 607877, "typical_volume": 668532.9, "trend": 44.653917, "fair_value": 29.581103, "relative_strength": 2.265454, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.40557, "energy": 19.324955, "activity_lines": [ 45.625893, 47.935498, 48.77751, 46.92949 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }