{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4567a30-97c7-472e-97e4-850c74125a7f", "symbol": "CGNT", "name": "Cognyte Software Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.161, "architecture_energy": 6.399, "architecture_maturity": 17.592, "architecture_confidence": 45.82, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.34, "rotation_up": 27.08, "upward_expansion": 26.42, "deceleration": 67.91, "rotation_down": 31.01, "downward_expansion": 23.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.867333, 8.781818, 9.123524, 9.002301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.2, "trend_reference": 8.8, "distance_from_trend": 0.045455, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.930769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160039, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.944229, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.256831, "excess_performance": 0.069377, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045455, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005912, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160039, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.300338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079442, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118861, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.256831, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.571451, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3451743, "relative_activity": 1.069671, "balance": 0.571451, "dry_up": 0.783026, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12764, "annualized_volatility": 0.688283, "from_high_reference": -0.25264, "from_low_reference": 0.462639 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.8, "fair_value_reference": 7.930769, "structural_low": 6.29, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006947, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.031085, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.279279, "worst_return": -0.214839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.079734, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.00712, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.292035, "worst_return": -0.131406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.271218, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.04842, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.39115, "worst_return": -0.009967, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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9.244667, 9.017032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.8, "volume": 3292219, "typical_volume": 3146123.65, "trend": 8.867667, "fair_value": 7.835449, "relative_strength": -13.954598, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.67712, "energy": 19.072084, "activity_lines": [ 8.696667, 9.075818, 9.232429, 9.010387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.76, "volume": 2871921, "typical_volume": 3148152.5, "trend": 8.844333, "fair_value": 7.860256, "relative_strength": -10.160047, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.498568, "energy": 14.910959, "activity_lines": [ 8.73, 8.943818, 9.206857, 9.003441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.31, "volume": 1896021, "typical_volume": 3144035.5, "trend": 8.811, "fair_value": 7.881154, "relative_strength": -12.874493, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.987229, "energy": 15.342522, "activity_lines": [ 8.62, 8.772727, 9.130476, 8.968968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.94, "volume": 1887365, "typical_volume": 3146608.65, "trend": 8.812333, "fair_value": 7.905, "relative_strength": -6.346301, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.029229, "energy": 9.762926, "activity_lines": [ 8.720667, 8.743091, 9.115905, 8.97729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.2, "volume": 3451743, "typical_volume": 3226918.9, "trend": 8.8, "fair_value": 7.930769, "relative_strength": -7.944229, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.161357, "energy": 6.398512, "activity_lines": [ 8.867333, 8.781818, 9.123524, 9.002301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }