{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4591edf-a208-42cc-bc50-a258cc413582", "symbol": "XNJP", "name": "Xtrackers Japan Net Zero Pathway Paris Aligned UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.954, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.838, "architecture_energy": 58.637, "architecture_maturity": 45.882, "architecture_confidence": 76.364, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.3, "rotation_up": 58.33, "upward_expansion": 82.11, "deceleration": 66.13, "rotation_down": 24.23, "downward_expansion": 8.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.658666, 41.431454, 40.732571, 40.224161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 42.615002, "trend_reference": 39.721834, "distance_from_trend": 0.072836, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.013597, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.151334, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.782886, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.093113, "excess_performance": 0.028473, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072836, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023262, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.151334, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06368, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007829, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025579, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093113, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.933284, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22811, "relative_activity": 3.75397, "balance": 2.933284, "dry_up": 2.58932, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020912, "annualized_volatility": 0.153941, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.160697 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.721834, "fair_value_reference": 37.013597, "structural_low": 36.715, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039086, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.005601, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.064072, "worst_return": -0.065733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.001299, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.029694, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.001299, "worst_return": -0.001299, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.059473, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.05151, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.059473, "worst_return": 0.059473, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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36.853137, "relative_strength": 4.989809, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.682688, "energy": 89.693979, "activity_lines": [ 41.453333, 40.854909, 40.040715, 39.719473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.904999, "volume": 15608, "typical_volume": 4148.95, "trend": 39.421167, "fair_value": 36.88964, "relative_strength": 2.870286, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.177539, "energy": 79.972605, "activity_lines": [ 41.379999, 40.942545, 40.173476, 39.82143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.794998, "volume": 4674, "typical_volume": 4311.05, "trend": 39.513, "fair_value": 36.924509, "relative_strength": 1.343961, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.572778, "energy": 68.451786, "activity_lines": [ 41.215999, 40.988818, 40.29469, 39.910065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.389999, "volume": 19843, "typical_volume": 5016.05, "trend": 39.6235, "fair_value": 36.964027, "relative_strength": 0.61154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.697502, "energy": 49.948993, "activity_lines": [ 41.250999, 41.112999, 40.462119, 40.031161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.615002, "volume": 22811, "typical_volume": 6076.5, "trend": 39.721834, "fair_value": 37.013597, "relative_strength": 0.782886, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.838102, "energy": 58.637116, "activity_lines": [ 41.658666, 41.431454, 40.732571, 40.224161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }