{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4652843-3938-4196-9b14-db5b420715c3", "symbol": "NXR", "name": "Norcros plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 69.276, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.146, "architecture_energy": 60.48, "architecture_maturity": 10.563, "architecture_confidence": 81.579, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.2, "rotation_up": 76.42, "upward_expansion": 58.52, "deceleration": 12.76, "rotation_down": 14.56, "downward_expansion": 26.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 320.266667, 309.778636, 299.218289, 301.145793 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 334.0, "trend_reference": 308.67651, "distance_from_trend": 0.082039, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 243.809264, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.369923, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.68781, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.061798, "excess_performance": -0.128076, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082039, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002491, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.369923, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130523, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026878, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101771, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061798, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.338501, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 414420, "relative_activity": 0.761536, "balance": 4.338501, "dry_up": 1.573832, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059027, "annualized_volatility": 0.338671, "from_high_reference": -0.106952, "from_low_reference": 0.325562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 308.67651, "fair_value_reference": 243.809264, "structural_low": 259.35, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.000409, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009508, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.052778, "worst_return": -0.130952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047962, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.020325, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.098021, "worst_return": -0.093023, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.131864, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.015129, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.208107, "worst_return": -0.215982, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037594, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026089, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087591, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016544, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.417861, "energy": 20.183204, "activity_lines": [ 302.963333, 294.319342, 290.874889, 298.528344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 314.0, "volume": 1132225, "typical_volume": 538125.05, "trend": 307.709844, "fair_value": 241.701421, "relative_strength": -2.233538, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.069465, "energy": 33.417765, "activity_lines": [ 307.733333, 298.637382, 292.806816, 298.953515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 316.0, "volume": 1002381, "typical_volume": 536243.75, "trend": 308.309844, "fair_value": 242.64802, "relative_strength": -2.593569, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.950732, "energy": 44.629144, "activity_lines": [ 311.866667, 302.826846, 295.133981, 299.488364 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 334.0, "volume": 414420, "typical_volume": 544189.35, "trend": 308.67651, "fair_value": 243.809264, "relative_strength": 2.68781, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.14634, "energy": 60.479508, "activity_lines": [ 320.266667, 309.778636, 299.218289, 301.145793 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }