{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4690a94-54b4-4d4a-abc8-fd7e701cffd5", "symbol": "PIFI", "name": "ETF SERIES SOLUTIONS CLEARSHARES PITON INTERM FXD INC ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.704, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.238, "architecture_energy": 45.241, "architecture_maturity": 22.573, "architecture_confidence": 90.484, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.98, "rotation_up": 19.09, "upward_expansion": 7.43, "deceleration": 45.48, "rotation_down": 52.38, "downward_expansion": 78.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 93.063567, 93.168355, 93.273263, 93.496436 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 93.2357, "trend_reference": 93.780519, "distance_from_trend": -0.00581, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 89.626921, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040264, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.429475, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011088, "excess_performance": -0.136713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00581, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00251, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040264, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01309, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114295, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005497, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.267898, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7284, "relative_activity": 1.123554, "balance": 1.267898, "dry_up": 0.661422, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004949, "annualized_volatility": 0.034375, "from_high_reference": -0.022456, "from_low_reference": 0.012058 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.780519, "fair_value_reference": 89.626921, "structural_low": 92.604966, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004148, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.011391, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.017657, "worst_return": -0.022008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003061, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00721, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.024147, "worst_return": -0.028708, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035459, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.092259, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.045257, "worst_return": -0.039317, "sufficient": false 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89.506201, "relative_strength": -8.365556, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.5352, "energy": 37.877926, "activity_lines": [ 93.172722, 93.227783, 93.363528, 93.596909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.865, "volume": 4602, "typical_volume": 6267.7, "trend": 93.809304, "fair_value": 89.564012, "relative_strength": -9.014552, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.669974, "energy": 54.00425, "activity_lines": [ 93.031667, 93.163569, 93.297726, 93.533443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.2357, "volume": 7284, "typical_volume": 6483.0, "trend": 93.780519, "fair_value": 89.626921, "relative_strength": -11.429475, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.238286, "energy": 45.240762, "activity_lines": [ 93.063567, 93.168355, 93.273263, 93.496436 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }