{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b46916b0-906e-45b3-a8d1-a0daa32495ef", "symbol": "ITDJ", "name": "ISHARES LIFEPATH TARGET DATE 2070 ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.335, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.509, "architecture_energy": 52.32, "architecture_maturity": 50.95, "architecture_confidence": 74.08, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.16, "rotation_up": 52.97, "upward_expansion": 80.55, "deceleration": 64.05, "rotation_down": 26.75, "downward_expansion": 7.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.87002, 32.720673, 32.411357, 31.838564 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.6665, "trend_reference": 31.194713, "distance_from_trend": 0.079237, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.797196, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211147, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.018898, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.106959, "excess_performance": -0.018666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079237, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039708, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211147, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017531, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00952, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106959, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.370993, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28232, "relative_activity": 1.277535, "balance": 1.370993, "dry_up": 1.024286, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023144, "annualized_volatility": 0.148785, "from_high_reference": -0.000698, "from_low_reference": 0.251683 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.194713, "fair_value_reference": 27.797196, "structural_low": 27.91, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.000959, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001255, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.01822, "worst_return": -0.016301, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041774, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 24.062563, "volume": 19, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 24.475314, "volume": 112, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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0.161873, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.45554, "energy": 38.364095, "activity_lines": [ 32.448653, 32.487518, 32.092854, 31.564745 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.615, "volume": 8322, "typical_volume": 21671.35, "trend": 31.071873, "fair_value": 27.731981, "relative_strength": 0.291089, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.409135, "energy": 36.717454, "activity_lines": [ 32.496487, 32.511218, 32.210776, 31.671168 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.6665, "volume": 28232, "typical_volume": 22098.8, "trend": 31.194713, "fair_value": 27.797196, "relative_strength": -0.018898, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.509362, "energy": 52.319914, "activity_lines": [ 32.87002, 32.720673, 32.411357, 31.838564 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }