{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b477f0be-bd12-412f-a01f-abad6053680b", "symbol": "5222", "name": "Transcom, Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.299, "architecture_energy": 37.622, "architecture_maturity": 21.906, "architecture_confidence": 91.718, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.38, "rotation_up": 20.07, "upward_expansion": 5.02, "deceleration": 47.17, "rotation_down": 51.51, "downward_expansion": 78.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 116.366667, 117.281818, 120.292857, 123.212883 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 123.0, "trend_reference": 127.119445, "distance_from_trend": -0.032406, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 122.603643, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003233, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.554694, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043353, "excess_performance": -0.484725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032406, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027257, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003233, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012091, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335547, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011065, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043353, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.227978, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1665740, "relative_activity": 0.51979, "balance": 1.227978, "dry_up": 0.488032, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079112, "annualized_volatility": 0.463793, "from_high_reference": -0.275603, "from_low_reference": 0.211823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 127.119445, "fair_value_reference": 122.603643, "structural_low": 101.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.010791, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.004015, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.157258, "worst_return": -0.150685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.087718, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012601, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.333491, "worst_return": -0.156757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.112461, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.060139, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.124457, "worst_return": -0.167808, 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118.566667, 118.854545, 122.904806, 125.567145 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 111.5, "volume": 2162703, "typical_volume": 3362923.7, "trend": 127.775618, "fair_value": 122.664085, "relative_strength": -37.378713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.193947, "energy": 48.32136, "activity_lines": [ 115.866667, 117.290909, 121.542813, 124.471944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.5, "volume": 888913, "typical_volume": 3280774.8, "trend": 127.239815, "fair_value": 122.609182, "relative_strength": -37.76071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.030676, "energy": 59.821351, "activity_lines": [ 113.866667, 116.209091, 120.369048, 123.48642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 123.0, "volume": 1665740, "typical_volume": 3204639.3, "trend": 127.119445, "fair_value": 122.603643, "relative_strength": -33.554694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.29916, "energy": 37.622448, "activity_lines": [ 116.366667, 117.281818, 120.292857, 123.212883 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }