{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4780452-d84a-4294-aedb-ec8d97c6873f", "symbol": "D3E", "name": "D3 ENERGY FPO [D3E]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.167, "architecture_energy": 22.296, "architecture_maturity": 55.47, "architecture_confidence": 78.301, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.99, "rotation_up": 30.93, "upward_expansion": 20.6, "deceleration": 43.4, "rotation_down": 28.91, "downward_expansion": 56.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.349667, 0.342909, 0.354952, 0.36743 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.33, "trend_reference": 0.376167, "distance_from_trend": -0.122729, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.242611, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.360202, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.222723, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09589, "excess_performance": -0.159596, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122729, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01441, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.360202, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.405059, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364527, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09589, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.542998, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129622, "relative_activity": 0.425795, "balance": 0.542998, "dry_up": 0.79465, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124126, "annualized_volatility": 0.579844, "from_high_reference": -0.45, "from_low_reference": 0.375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.376167, "fair_value_reference": 0.242611, "structural_low": 0.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.323944, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015152, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043478, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 0.2, "volume": 4319966, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-24", "close": 0.18, "volume": 591198, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.250466, "energy": 18.669802, "activity_lines": [ 0.349, 0.343, 0.361643, 0.371591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.36, "volume": 186583, "typical_volume": 312626.5, "trend": 0.377, "fair_value": 0.241858, "relative_strength": -8.220043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.997535, "energy": 18.858145, "activity_lines": [ 0.356333, 0.345545, 0.359429, 0.370462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.33, "volume": 129622, "typical_volume": 304423.8, "trend": 0.376167, "fair_value": 0.242611, "relative_strength": -18.222723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.166779, "energy": 22.29576, "activity_lines": [ 0.349667, 0.342909, 0.354952, 0.36743 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }