{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b47b7465-6756-4945-a03b-005e798529d3", "symbol": "603898", "name": "Guangzhou Holike Creative Home Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.855, "architecture_energy": 73.846, "architecture_maturity": 34.6, "architecture_confidence": 78.652, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.2, "rotation_up": 13.54, "upward_expansion": 20.44, "deceleration": 32.13, "rotation_down": 75.62, "downward_expansion": 89.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.156418, 12.218419, 12.642309, 13.093133 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.88, "trend_reference": 13.728673, "distance_from_trend": -0.207498, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.487571, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037419, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.393728, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.383918, "excess_performance": -0.340715, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.207498, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037419, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109739, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.383918, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.785446, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20700059, "relative_activity": 1.035753, "balance": 0.785446, "dry_up": 1.229239, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136209, "annualized_volatility": 0.590252, "from_high_reference": -0.407407, "from_low_reference": 0.176216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.728673, "fair_value_reference": 10.487571, "structural_low": 10.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.007125, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.00502, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.284741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.020275, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028058, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.214993, "worst_return": -0.155573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016627, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.09238, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.287129, "worst_return": -0.170049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.662523, "energy": 24.085075, "activity_lines": [ 13.910177, 13.539702, 13.449217, 13.732016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.51, "volume": 26312208, "typical_volume": 20056403.65, "trend": 13.89334, "fair_value": 10.476365, "relative_strength": -14.776877, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.626597, "energy": 32.414016, "activity_lines": [ 12.784831, 13.044971, 13.15474, 13.507521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.4, "volume": 15844384, "typical_volume": 19796067.55, "trend": 13.809673, "fair_value": 10.481173, "relative_strength": -15.853612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.122908, "energy": 69.12819, "activity_lines": [ 11.755485, 12.569877, 12.866358, 13.282144 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.88, "volume": 20700059, "typical_volume": 19985520.55, "trend": 13.728673, "fair_value": 10.487571, "relative_strength": -14.393728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.8548, "energy": 73.845971, "activity_lines": [ 11.156418, 12.218419, 12.642309, 13.093133 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }