{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b48361fe-b070-4294-bd90-fc4c5c8663ce", "symbol": "P34", "name": "Delfi Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.042, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.4, "architecture_energy": 69.452, "architecture_maturity": 18.263, "architecture_confidence": 95.938, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.07, "rotation_up": 14.82, "upward_expansion": 16.01, "deceleration": 38.2, "rotation_down": 70.56, "downward_expansion": 94.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.873, 0.884818, 0.926202, 0.941606 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.87, "trend_reference": 0.943899, "distance_from_trend": -0.078291, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.845004, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029582, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.018219, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.039987, "excess_performance": -0.194822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078291, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037914, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029582, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152818, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160182, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.282217, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039987, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.150307, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1921000, "relative_activity": 0.435309, "balance": 0.150307, "dry_up": 0.431683, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054819, "annualized_volatility": 0.381304, "from_high_reference": -0.289591, "from_low_reference": 0.220436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.943899, "fair_value_reference": 0.845004, "structural_low": 0.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.026467, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.036266, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.020269, "worst_return": -0.045161, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.038142, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.04745, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.032258, "worst_return": -0.044025, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.033841, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.071445, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.032258, "worst_return": -0.035423, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.068055, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.060272, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.07255, "worst_return": 0.063561, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018867, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.067013, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019868, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126437, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132451, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018634, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006097, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112499, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032433, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.246073, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045453, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087179, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.076848, "volume": 3881100, "typical_volume": 4484880.0, "trend": 0.997089, "fair_value": 0.680906, "relative_strength": 29.902311, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.392636, 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"relative_strength": -15.578321, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.407092, "energy": 63.087784, "activity_lines": [ 0.881, 0.899545, 0.943486, 0.950188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.875, "volume": 1872200, "typical_volume": 4760700.0, "trend": 0.940535, "fair_value": 0.846716, "relative_strength": -14.881091, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.519408, "energy": 59.149992, "activity_lines": [ 0.877333, 0.891727, 0.935066, 0.946156 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.87, "volume": 1921000, "typical_volume": 4412960.0, "trend": 0.943899, "fair_value": 0.845004, "relative_strength": -16.018219, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.400364, "energy": 69.452391, "activity_lines": [ 0.873, 0.884818, 0.926202, 0.941606 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }