{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b48712d3-6bff-45e5-8db9-dcf9c316efb4", "symbol": "200019", "name": "Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.339, "architecture_energy": 34.034, "architecture_maturity": 62.39, "architecture_confidence": 58.977, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.55, "rotation_up": 26.42, "upward_expansion": 16.2, "deceleration": 65.61, "rotation_down": 39.38, "downward_expansion": 66.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.14, 3.134922, 3.176298, 3.246914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.16, "trend_reference": 3.328008, "distance_from_trend": -0.050483, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.16603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.001905, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.629678, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.086705, "excess_performance": -0.094105, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050483, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031665, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.001905, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038608, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096297, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11882, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086705, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788289, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 303146, "relative_activity": 0.454598, "balance": 0.788289, "dry_up": 0.629958, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033891, "annualized_volatility": 0.149261, "from_high_reference": -0.150538, "from_low_reference": 0.047189 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.328008, "fair_value_reference": 3.16603, "structural_low": 3.017603, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001548, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014865, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.048023, "worst_return": -0.024169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022858, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.029385, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.051136, "worst_return": -0.039275, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.074089, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013046, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102273, "worst_return": -0.024169, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 3.13, "volume": 370400, "typical_volume": 721063.5, "trend": 3.348008, "fair_value": 3.165729, "relative_strength": -8.070414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.070946, "energy": 46.590053, "activity_lines": [ 3.114, 3.125234, 3.2003, 3.27055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.16, "volume": 489514, "typical_volume": 726497.05, "trend": 3.338342, "fair_value": 3.165965, "relative_strength": -5.369452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.553195, "energy": 43.437534, "activity_lines": [ 3.128, 3.130502, 3.187585, 3.25842 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.16, "volume": 303146, "typical_volume": 666843.8, "trend": 3.328008, "fair_value": 3.16603, "relative_strength": -9.629678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.339098, "energy": 34.03369, "activity_lines": [ 3.14, 3.134922, 3.176298, 3.246914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }