{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b48e349b-7b33-4476-99c6-80444bd52ae8", "symbol": "BC8", "name": "Bechtle AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 68.809, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 58.48, "architecture_energy": 72.026, "architecture_maturity": 15.167, "architecture_confidence": 67.076, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.34, "rotation_up": 73.88, "upward_expansion": 62.64, "deceleration": 23.75, "rotation_down": 19.06, "downward_expansion": 25.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.562666, 32.977018, 31.758072, 31.415393 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.599998, "trend_reference": 32.286145, "distance_from_trend": 0.164586, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.451234, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003972, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.732661, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.012006, "excess_performance": -0.052634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.164586, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083148, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003972, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194696, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16263, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012006, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.024686, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 888997, "relative_activity": 0.792952, "balance": 2.024686, "dry_up": 0.986176, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060514, "annualized_volatility": 0.521411, "from_high_reference": -0.148068, "from_low_reference": 0.565807 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.286145, "fair_value_reference": 37.451234, "structural_low": 24.013181, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038934, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.011574, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.146414, "worst_return": -0.143655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042355, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.00313, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.116279, "worst_return": -0.031722, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030282, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102823, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.516849, "energy": 5.477888, "activity_lines": [ 31.004, 30.945178, 30.454711, 30.862182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.1, "volume": 2105358, "typical_volume": 1260410.1, "trend": 32.446617, "fair_value": 37.469215, "relative_strength": -2.423414, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.615236, "energy": 38.138173, "activity_lines": [ 32.709333, 31.881284, 31.04712, 31.082917 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.599998, "volume": 888997, "typical_volume": 1121122.7, "trend": 32.286145, "fair_value": 37.451234, "relative_strength": -0.732661, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.480495, "energy": 72.025557, "activity_lines": [ 34.562666, 32.977018, 31.758072, 31.415393 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }