{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b491990b-8de9-4ce6-91eb-a87bbb339bb8", "symbol": "300254", "name": "ShanXi C&Y Pharmaceutical Group Co.,LTD.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.164, "architecture_energy": 54.689, "architecture_maturity": 36.535, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.67, "rotation_up": 21.73, "upward_expansion": 8.98, "deceleration": 55.12, "rotation_down": 60.82, "downward_expansion": 84.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.042, 8.205091, 9.504857, 10.167763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.6, "trend_reference": 10.788, "distance_from_trend": -0.202818, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.623974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.106398, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.148522, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.18251, "excess_performance": -0.189909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202818, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058776, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.106398, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.593948, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231485, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257937, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.18251, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.395772, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47617394, "relative_activity": 0.806864, "balance": 0.395772, "dry_up": 1.338353, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150179, "annualized_volatility": 0.551305, "from_high_reference": -0.434211, "from_low_reference": 0.240981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.788, "fair_value_reference": 9.623974, "structural_low": 6.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.066801, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.079481, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.300898, "worst_return": -0.069378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.105882, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.104504, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.28, "worst_return": -0.165768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005013, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.044043, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.61, "worst_return": -0.144126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.29899, "energy": 76.623518, "activity_lines": [ 8.292, 8.960909, 10.334667, 10.752817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.27, "volume": 91036136, "typical_volume": 58206580.25, "trend": 10.915333, "fair_value": 9.615385, "relative_strength": -34.183984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.52777, "energy": 64.60621, "activity_lines": [ 7.924667, 8.475636, 9.97519, 10.511247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.83, "volume": 58564958, "typical_volume": 58612639.15, "trend": 10.838667, "fair_value": 9.618077, "relative_strength": -27.31983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.296873, "energy": 61.605369, "activity_lines": [ 7.851333, 8.222545, 9.693476, 10.312194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.6, "volume": 47617394, "typical_volume": 59015410.85, "trend": 10.788, "fair_value": 9.623974, "relative_strength": -23.148522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.163617, "energy": 54.689301, "activity_lines": [ 8.042, 8.205091, 9.504857, 10.167763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }