{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b494366a-55b2-44a2-87a9-86cb71b34700", "symbol": "SUI", "name": "Sun Communities Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.121, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.681, "architecture_energy": 19.724, "architecture_maturity": 36.96, "architecture_confidence": 77.832, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.57, "rotation_up": 22.62, "upward_expansion": 12.83, "deceleration": 43.99, "rotation_down": 33.79, "downward_expansion": 60.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.560667, 121.431073, 122.477401, 124.087011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 120.44, "trend_reference": 125.844245, "distance_from_trend": -0.042944, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 118.734005, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.014368, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.37836, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033249, "excess_performance": -0.158874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042944, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0056, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.014368, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04084, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143784, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031272, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033249, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.772723, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4695289, "relative_activity": 0.85507, "balance": 2.772723, "dry_up": 1.74789, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051623, "annualized_volatility": 0.223311, "from_high_reference": -0.118528, "from_low_reference": 0.048412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.844245, "fair_value_reference": 118.734005, "structural_low": 116.373036, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.018026, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.003434, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.12525, "worst_return": -0.194395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008059, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.038423, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.155152, "worst_return": -0.14502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02999, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.082861, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.093997, "worst_return": -0.145032, 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"fair_value": 118.613202, "relative_strength": -10.031797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.161985, "energy": 26.867832, "activity_lines": [ 121.267864, 121.414779, 122.971842, 124.602593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.48, "volume": 15042316, "typical_volume": 5514987.75, "trend": 125.996197, "fair_value": 118.676, "relative_strength": -9.499985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.748761, "energy": 20.860516, "activity_lines": [ 122.032667, 121.671219, 122.846109, 124.445475 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 120.44, "volume": 4695289, "typical_volume": 5491113.9, "trend": 125.844245, "fair_value": 118.734005, "relative_strength": -14.37836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.680734, "energy": 19.72388, "activity_lines": [ 121.560667, 121.431073, 122.477401, 124.087011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }