{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4964e25-78d5-4719-81df-6aac7e4c6afe", "symbol": "603386", "name": "Guangdong Champion Asia Electronics Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 62.093, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.329, "architecture_energy": 49.051, "architecture_maturity": 17.039, "architecture_confidence": 80.831, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.62, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 21.91, "deceleration": 55.44, "rotation_down": 70.61, "downward_expansion": 49.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.399333, 14.304546, 15.105048, 15.017441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.31, "trend_reference": 15.005333, "distance_from_trend": -0.112982, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.616117, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.074373, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.076336, "excess_performance": -0.033132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112982, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033141, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090744, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048548, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076336, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.62449, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43180041, "relative_activity": 0.880352, "balance": 0.62449, "dry_up": 1.057745, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17916, "annualized_volatility": 0.672968, "from_high_reference": -0.39801, "from_low_reference": 0.324378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.005333, "fair_value_reference": 12.616117, "structural_low": 10.05, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.054652, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.052781, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.213655, "worst_return": -0.176571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004011, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000999, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.44204, "worst_return": -0.187322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.11597, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.129334, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.423293, "worst_return": -0.054256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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15.836129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.3, "volume": 55861340, "typical_volume": 48298968.35, "trend": 15.323667, "fair_value": 12.604056, "relative_strength": -13.007997, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.016057, "energy": 7.291364, "activity_lines": [ 15.88, 16.651818, 16.01219, 15.632129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.51, "volume": 64361549, "typical_volume": 49173899.8, "trend": 15.201333, "fair_value": 12.60504, "relative_strength": -19.346258, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.441327, "energy": 33.923815, "activity_lines": [ 14.052, 15.681636, 15.646286, 15.386086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.25, "volume": 44120705, "typical_volume": 49304638.05, "trend": 15.072667, "fair_value": 12.60264, "relative_strength": -21.208371, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.119334, "energy": 46.673155, "activity_lines": [ 12.564667, 14.762546, 15.270762, 15.131161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.31, "volume": 43180041, "typical_volume": 49048610.1, "trend": 15.005333, "fair_value": 12.616117, "relative_strength": -9.074373, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.328743, "energy": 49.05071, "activity_lines": [ 12.399333, 14.304546, 15.105048, 15.017441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }