{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4997984-07e8-438e-b10d-93a8073b1aae", "symbol": "300698", "name": "Wanma Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.417, "architecture_energy": 77.997, "architecture_maturity": 64.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.429, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.68, "rotation_up": 13.05, "upward_expansion": 17.77, "deceleration": 40.74, "rotation_down": 74.76, "downward_expansion": 93.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.36, 25.836545, 29.699571, 31.96815 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.58, "trend_reference": 35.253667, "distance_from_trend": -0.274402, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.563731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.3004, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.448174, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.383317, "excess_performance": -0.390717, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.274402, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119458, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.3004, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.36767, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.374482, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120733, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.383317, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.969313, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27367919, "relative_activity": 1.823554, "balance": 0.969313, "dry_up": 1.141402, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124436, "annualized_volatility": 0.460711, "from_high_reference": -0.53133, "from_low_reference": 0.177716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.253667, "fair_value_reference": 36.563731, "structural_low": 21.719999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.057217, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.014759, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.33246, "worst_return": -0.232811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.206067, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.105451, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.608126, "worst_return": -0.257482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.314219, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.181784, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.413148, "worst_return": -0.375742, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -84.955226, "energy": 93.527756, "activity_lines": [ 24.667999, 27.449454, 31.260333, 33.422817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.1, "volume": 12787600, "typical_volume": 14201313.95, "trend": 35.805333, "fair_value": 36.558729, "relative_strength": -38.771561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.782293, "energy": 87.541886, "activity_lines": [ 24.145333, 26.367818, 30.379619, 32.627849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.58, "volume": 27367919, "typical_volume": 15008013.95, "trend": 35.253667, "fair_value": 36.563731, "relative_strength": -37.448174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.41721, "energy": 77.996789, "activity_lines": [ 24.36, 25.836545, 29.699571, 31.96815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }