{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b49c95e9-6b11-44c7-ab32-29439493993c", "symbol": "SVEAF", "name": "Sveafastigheter AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.454, "architecture_energy": 30.728, "architecture_maturity": 75.371, "architecture_confidence": 81.19, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.83, "rotation_up": 25.98, "upward_expansion": 15.49, "deceleration": 46.38, "rotation_down": 35.58, "downward_expansion": 63.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.486667, 31.222727, 31.964952, 32.909204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.099998, "trend_reference": 34.533667, "distance_from_trend": -0.070472, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.475579, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119959, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.281821, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.177345, "excess_performance": -0.238839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070472, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080418, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119959, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017344, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019786, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.177345, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.243932, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1888560, "relative_activity": 1.571046, "balance": 1.243932, "dry_up": 1.733397, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057393, "annualized_volatility": 0.254857, "from_high_reference": -0.302174, "from_low_reference": 0.122378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.533667, "fair_value_reference": 36.475579, "structural_low": 28.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.026273, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.0163, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.001453, "worst_return": -0.11611, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.110465, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.142241, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.110465, "worst_return": -0.110465, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 32.400002, "volume": 1851146, "typical_volume": 1227468.45, "trend": 34.880333, "fair_value": 36.522128, "relative_strength": -21.596819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.426898, "energy": 37.9907, "activity_lines": [ 31.173334, 31.087273, 32.044429, 33.088581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.099998, "volume": 1888560, "typical_volume": 1202103.7, "trend": 34.533667, "fair_value": 36.475579, "relative_strength": -23.281821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.453868, "energy": 30.727545, "activity_lines": [ 31.486667, 31.222727, 31.964952, 32.909204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }