{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4af909d-9807-4499-8a3c-057b729e9c90", "symbol": "A1ME34", "name": "AMETEK, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.858, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 51.039, "architecture_energy": 64.133, "architecture_maturity": 14.648, "architecture_confidence": 66.941, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.42, "rotation_up": 66.71, "upward_expansion": 57.97, "deceleration": 28.92, "rotation_down": 18.75, "downward_expansion": 20.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.772667, 49.443607, 48.791296, 48.667429 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 50.310001, "trend_reference": 48.697853, "distance_from_trend": 0.033105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.068014, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.225041, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.517684, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.004477, "excess_performance": 0.052572, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033105, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026978, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.225041, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031322, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045177, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145151, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004477, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.142857, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.142857, "dry_up": 0.02391, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014866, "annualized_volatility": 0.167368, "from_high_reference": -0.028294, "from_low_reference": 0.250388 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.697853, "fair_value_reference": 41.068014, "structural_low": 45.849998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.016782, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.021502, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.007351, "worst_return": -0.026341, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.082137, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.013646, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122945, "worst_return": 0.013646, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.134672, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022636, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.151189, "worst_return": 0.073686, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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39.815351, "relative_strength": -5.645572, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.933353, "energy": 27.294064, "activity_lines": [ 47.32343, 47.593698, 48.153952, 48.006034 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 47.701714, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 475.05, "trend": 47.41861, "fair_value": 39.923792, "relative_strength": -3.087029, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.93786, "energy": 33.778928, "activity_lines": [ 47.348738, 47.630727, 48.079946, 48.030622 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 48.108372, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 457.2, "trend": 47.557788, "fair_value": 40.039585, "relative_strength": 0.616115, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.281171, "energy": 11.044244, "activity_lines": [ 47.593513, 47.719846, 48.041566, 48.075123 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 48.049999, 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47.821278, 47.919633, 48.13443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 50.91, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 267.55, "trend": 48.258541, "fair_value": 40.488317, "relative_strength": 3.652529, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.028458, "energy": 65.434806, "activity_lines": [ 49.007224, 48.385114, 48.16666, 48.31796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 49.0, "volume": 23, "typical_volume": 268.2, "trend": 48.361502, "fair_value": 40.602862, "relative_strength": -2.034487, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.751694, "energy": 58.132629, "activity_lines": [ 49.129333, 48.566231, 48.227196, 48.365797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.959999, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 265.4, "trend": 48.440155, "fair_value": 40.717783, "relative_strength": 0.453132, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.676221, "energy": 55.870595, "activity_lines": [ 49.178666, 48.719193, 48.293568, 48.404409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.959999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 265.4, "trend": 48.473856, "fair_value": 40.833907, "relative_strength": 0.469046, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.425364, "energy": 56.046173, "activity_lines": [ 49.167333, 48.841468, 48.370301, 48.437948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.310001, "volume": 24, "typical_volume": 265.6, "trend": 48.589184, "fair_value": 40.954063, "relative_strength": 1.159837, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.621354, "energy": 51.577561, "activity_lines": [ 49.545333, 49.170881, 48.585965, 48.556409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.310001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 261.4, "trend": 48.697853, "fair_value": 41.068014, "relative_strength": 4.517684, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.039177, "energy": 64.132944, "activity_lines": [ 49.772667, 49.443607, 48.791296, 48.667429 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }