{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4b10be5-66bd-4826-9d7a-657738f24c35", "symbol": "CMR", "name": "iShares Premium Money Market ETF Common Class", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.311, "architecture_energy": 95.154, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.765, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.43, "rotation_up": 83.3, "upward_expansion": 97.54, "deceleration": 41.87, "rotation_down": 10.78, "downward_expansion": 21.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.014012, 49.985722, 49.950244, 49.913137 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 50.049999, "trend_reference": 49.851696, "distance_from_trend": 0.003978, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.146621, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039533, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.587547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007441, "excess_performance": -0.11298, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003978, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002931, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039533, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00485, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105875, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001907, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007441, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 43.129689, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 334400, "relative_activity": 0.770693, "balance": 43.129689, "dry_up": 1.026343, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.000681, "annualized_volatility": 0.004579, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.018995 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.851696, "fair_value_reference": 48.146621, "structural_low": 49.68032, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 60, "median_return": 0.002429, "positive_rate": 0.933333, "directional_follow_through": 0.933333, "median_excess_return": -0.011542, "regime_survival": 0.983333, "best_return": 0.006973, "worst_return": -0.000619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.007519, "positive_rate": 0.947368, "directional_follow_through": 0.947368, "median_excess_return": -0.011039, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.013852, "worst_return": -0.00012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016592, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.007573, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.025682, "worst_return": 0.00074, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "up", "direction": 66.457469, "energy": 57.068021, "activity_lines": [ 49.938851, 49.935587, 49.904739, 49.862979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.975044, "volume": 353900, "typical_volume": 442680.0, "trend": 49.808608, "fair_value": 48.05337, "relative_strength": -9.211209, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.569996, "energy": 56.437068, "activity_lines": [ 49.948564, 49.945018, 49.914379, 49.87457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.994999, "volume": 488800, "typical_volume": 441025.0, "trend": 49.821836, "fair_value": 48.084553, "relative_strength": -9.029206, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.609368, "energy": 69.834205, "activity_lines": [ 49.964397, 49.955812, 49.924837, 49.886595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.02, "volume": 604200, "typical_volume": 442225.0, "trend": 49.836761, "fair_value": 48.115664, "relative_strength": -8.162907, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.777043, "energy": 89.728236, "activity_lines": [ 49.988032, 49.969065, 49.936641, 49.89938 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.049999, "volume": 334400, "typical_volume": 433895.0, "trend": 49.851696, "fair_value": 48.146621, "relative_strength": -10.587547, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.311095, "energy": 95.154083, "activity_lines": [ 50.014012, 49.985722, 49.950244, 49.913137 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }