{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4b192c1-c5d5-412b-a10d-0f035b8925f8", "symbol": "603021", "name": "Shandong Huapeng Glass Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.517, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -3.464, "architecture_energy": 5.256, "architecture_maturity": 29.524, "architecture_confidence": 44.874, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.94, "rotation_up": 30.92, "upward_expansion": 38.41, "deceleration": 65.46, "rotation_down": 24.83, "downward_expansion": 39.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.776667, 6.819091, 6.95581, 6.968065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.55, "trend_reference": 6.772, "distance_from_trend": -0.032782, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.811538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.361311, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.859861, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.201835, "excess_performance": 0.245039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032782, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100482, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.361311, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167304, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.118599, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180563, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.201835, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.485098, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29453837, "relative_activity": 0.909475, "balance": 0.485098, "dry_up": 1.033825, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128479, "annualized_volatility": 0.527237, "from_high_reference": -0.25737, "from_low_reference": 0.809392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.772, "fair_value_reference": 4.811538, "structural_low": 5.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.026018, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.004616, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.329193, "worst_return": -0.183544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042897, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009339, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.641822, "worst_return": -0.12766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.022838, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036592, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.814645, "worst_return": -0.126496, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.184516, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.094861, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.185279, "worst_return": 0.183752, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11546, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053299, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004728, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121896, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169336, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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7.041286, 6.80043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.47, "volume": 10762080, "typical_volume": 39308102.55, "trend": 6.423, "fair_value": 4.756218, "relative_strength": 30.725102, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.026657, "energy": 19.575675, "activity_lines": [ 6.793333, 6.901273, 7.082286, 6.87271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.0, "volume": 39644100, "typical_volume": 38216799.55, "trend": 6.487, "fair_value": 4.769295, "relative_strength": 22.761278, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.271446, "energy": 12.351547, "activity_lines": [ 6.85, 6.901455, 7.071524, 6.909935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.2, "volume": 38778240, "typical_volume": 37903523.55, "trend": 6.566333, "fair_value": 4.782692, "relative_strength": 32.452448, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.957858, "energy": 17.138941, "activity_lines": [ 7.014667, 6.947091, 7.077048, 6.955935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.7, "volume": 45272880, "typical_volume": 36731302.0, "trend": 6.636333, "fair_value": 4.792692, "relative_strength": 20.444392, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.423014, "energy": 14.702314, "activity_lines": [ 6.985333, 6.900909, 7.034571, 6.964559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.85, "volume": 20418920, "typical_volume": 34391397.0, "trend": 6.709333, "fair_value": 4.803462, "relative_strength": 21.268516, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.508037, "energy": 11.125226, "activity_lines": [ 6.941333, 6.887818, 7.008667, 6.978344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.55, "volume": 29453837, "typical_volume": 32385520.85, "trend": 6.772, "fair_value": 4.811538, "relative_strength": 11.859861, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.463883, "energy": 5.255873, "activity_lines": [ 6.776667, 6.819091, 6.95581, 6.968065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }