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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.434, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.532, "architecture_energy": 41.471, "architecture_maturity": 58.398, "architecture_confidence": 49.109, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.24, "rotation_up": 46.14, "upward_expansion": 76.78, "deceleration": 70.99, "rotation_down": 25.03, "downward_expansion": 5.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 159.633333, 159.218182, 154.598688, 149.95678 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 160.0, "trend_reference": 144.330392, "distance_from_trend": 0.108568, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 127.789422, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.25206, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.482854, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.173469, "excess_performance": -0.172264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.108568, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039351, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.25206, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098058, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214829, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15373, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173469, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.409327, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 553750, "relative_activity": 0.287233, "balance": 1.409327, "dry_up": 1.077958, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057033, "annualized_volatility": 0.202381, "from_high_reference": -0.0773, "from_low_reference": 0.242751 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 144.330392, "fair_value_reference": 127.789422, "structural_low": 129.6968, 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166.0, "volume": 2770159, "typical_volume": 1772720.85, "trend": 142.606931, "fair_value": 126.693793, "relative_strength": -18.07425, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.111745, "energy": 63.342552, "activity_lines": [ 161.066667, 158.094092, 151.281149, 146.994148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 156.5, "volume": 3615823, "typical_volume": 1917264.0, "trend": 142.993619, "fair_value": 127.031671, "relative_strength": -23.736345, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.624734, "energy": 48.152206, "activity_lines": [ 159.8, 158.352739, 152.319824, 147.890475 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 158.5, "volume": 1372962, "typical_volume": 1936933.95, "trend": 143.478646, "fair_value": 127.396117, "relative_strength": -24.323514, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.575625, "energy": 43.381282, "activity_lines": [ 159.4, 158.694998, 153.446226, 148.890886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 160.0, "volume": 553750, "typical_volume": 1927879.9, "trend": 144.330392, "fair_value": 127.789422, "relative_strength": -21.482854, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.532192, "energy": 41.470574, "activity_lines": [ 159.633333, 159.218182, 154.598688, 149.95678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }