{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4b299b9-49c7-404d-a12e-b9c294499afe", "symbol": "603511", "name": "Aimer Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.169, "architecture_energy": 56.305, "architecture_maturity": 77.443, "architecture_confidence": 91.133, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.12, "rotation_up": 22.17, "upward_expansion": 9.37, "deceleration": 60.19, "rotation_down": 55.89, "downward_expansion": 80.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.646, 11.801273, 12.428061, 12.957631 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.9, "trend_reference": 13.781353, "distance_from_trend": -0.136514, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.733767, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.133522, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.307264, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.233247, "excess_performance": -0.190044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136514, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086966, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.133522, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150299, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027353, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.233247, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.312843, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7487498, "relative_activity": 1.107341, "balance": 0.312843, "dry_up": 1.382736, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06416, "annualized_volatility": 0.247489, "from_high_reference": -0.364995, "from_low_reference": 0.091743 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.781353, "fair_value_reference": 13.733767, "structural_low": 10.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.034679, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.030139, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.144841, "worst_return": -0.105134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.09766, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.111, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.009442, "worst_return": -0.116444, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.075704, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.115824, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.073386, "worst_return": -0.224794, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 6582816.55, "trend": 14.030686, "fair_value": 13.781227, "relative_strength": -23.652887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.221598, "energy": 72.363664, "activity_lines": [ 11.546, 11.942088, 12.66459, 13.23129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.79, "volume": 10903170, "typical_volume": 6800924.55, "trend": 13.901019, "fair_value": 13.757849, "relative_strength": -17.316307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.797144, "energy": 61.677034, "activity_lines": [ 11.582667, 11.84355, 12.533968, 13.086729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.9, "volume": 7487498, "typical_volume": 6761689.45, "trend": 13.781353, "fair_value": 13.733767, "relative_strength": -18.307264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.168513, "energy": 56.305337, "activity_lines": [ 11.646, 11.801273, 12.428061, 12.957631 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }