{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4b2b17a-14d0-4a22-bd4b-a377bab4827a", "symbol": "TRAW", "name": "Traws Pharma Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.139, "architecture_energy": 77.373, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.54, "rotation_up": 15.2, "upward_expansion": 18.53, "deceleration": 37.82, "rotation_down": 73.01, "downward_expansion": 96.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.535087, 0.65744, 0.969763, 1.173228 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.532, "trend_reference": 1.440537, "distance_from_trend": -0.630693, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.624206, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.930222, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -72.804266, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.728571, "excess_performance": -0.916025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.630693, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20096, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.930222, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15191, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.728043, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.732725, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.728571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.011107, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 599665, "relative_activity": 0.079619, "balance": 0.011107, "dry_up": 0.081091, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.659919, "annualized_volatility": 1.206218, "from_high_reference": -0.83706, "from_low_reference": 0.236922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.440537, "fair_value_reference": 7.624206, "structural_low": 0.4301, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.076858, "positive_rate": 0.372093, "directional_follow_through": 0.627907, "median_excess_return": -0.087067, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 0.321429, "worst_return": -0.429329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.370377, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.325369, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.130178, "worst_return": -0.579224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.438833, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.285779, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.527778, "worst_return": -0.706462, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.165012, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.611264, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.346715, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062827, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.627027, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"relative_strength": -74.340475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.592262, "energy": 75.085579, "activity_lines": [ 0.651127, 0.822316, 1.125469, 1.301117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.45, "volume": 516641, "typical_volume": 7516695.65, "trend": 1.46747, "fair_value": 7.774658, "relative_strength": -76.144037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.009143, "energy": 74.954035, "activity_lines": [ 0.566873, 0.722969, 1.04002, 1.233581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.532, "volume": 599665, "typical_volume": 7531716.6, "trend": 1.440537, "fair_value": 7.624206, "relative_strength": -72.804266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.139181, "energy": 77.373015, "activity_lines": [ 0.535087, 0.65744, 0.969763, 1.173228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }