{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4b38afb-caa1-4e2c-bb01-b79524786971", "symbol": "JPCT", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - Carbon Transition Global Equity (CTB) UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.804, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.288, "architecture_energy": 66.48, "architecture_maturity": 72.322, "architecture_confidence": 63.701, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.67, "rotation_up": 54.95, "upward_expansion": 82.24, "deceleration": 70.92, "rotation_down": 27.83, "downward_expansion": 11.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.579, 46.367182, 45.716571, 44.865667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 47.615002, "trend_reference": 43.942833, "distance_from_trend": 0.083567, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.136218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248551, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.694053, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126582, "excess_performance": -0.044309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083567, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031042, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248551, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043083, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046941, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002573, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126582, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.78806, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14549, "relative_activity": 1.258874, "balance": 3.78806, "dry_up": 0.716721, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017464, "annualized_volatility": 0.124152, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.204376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.942833, "fair_value_reference": 38.136218, "structural_low": 39.755001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.020162, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00047, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.050613, "worst_return": -0.10063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.047146, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.001588, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.093864, "worst_return": -0.079029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.060836, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.003942, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.136039, "worst_return": -0.049053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.89728, "energy": 87.006476, "activity_lines": [ 46.247667, 45.916455, 44.831381, 44.140118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.255001, "volume": 12716, "typical_volume": 12247.55, "trend": 43.569167, "fair_value": 37.828526, "relative_strength": -4.603559, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.748232, "energy": 81.474297, "activity_lines": [ 46.316667, 46.036091, 45.061714, 44.321849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.134998, "volume": 2466, "typical_volume": 11714.65, "trend": 43.6905, "fair_value": 37.926186, "relative_strength": -4.558028, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.317618, "energy": 74.299207, "activity_lines": [ 46.289333, 46.099636, 45.263381, 44.487387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.744999, "volume": 3402, "typical_volume": 11513.95, "trend": 43.806166, "fair_value": 38.025096, "relative_strength": -5.854748, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.628432, "energy": 57.185448, "activity_lines": [ 46.126999, 46.065727, 45.410119, 44.619935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.615002, "volume": 14549, "typical_volume": 11557.15, "trend": 43.942833, "fair_value": 38.136218, "relative_strength": -4.694053, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.288432, "energy": 66.480342, "activity_lines": [ 46.579, 46.367182, 45.716571, 44.865667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }