{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4b3fdef-d819-4aca-86a0-f496f9aead5f", "symbol": "NDXH", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Nasdaq-100 Swap ETF EUR Hedged Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.252, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.575, "architecture_energy": 28.684, "architecture_maturity": 70.005, "architecture_confidence": 87.91, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.32, "rotation_up": 25.03, "upward_expansion": 55.86, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 35.51, "downward_expansion": 21.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 651.326668, 657.419996, 656.02095, 638.110534 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 670.400024, "trend_reference": 616.426662, "distance_from_trend": 0.087558, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 495.345601, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.184882, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.177587, "excess_performance": 0.124275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087558, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048535, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.353399, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048227, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051849, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110283, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.177587, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.873775, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3177, "relative_activity": 0.431526, "balance": 0.873775, "dry_up": 1.331488, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034698, "annualized_volatility": 0.200042, "from_high_reference": -0.026289, "from_low_reference": 0.277196 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 616.426662, "fair_value_reference": 495.345601, "structural_low": 524.900024, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011749, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.011833, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.105206, "worst_return": -0.091145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.058518, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.022854, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.138298, "worst_return": -0.146679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.150696, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.100742, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202695, "worst_return": -0.031373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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671.953325, 672.649087, 648.56333, 628.681072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 645.099976, "volume": 21640, "typical_volume": 7514.4, "trend": 609.953329, "fair_value": 489.933421, "relative_strength": 6.327673, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.156723, "energy": 37.65054, "activity_lines": [ 662.693319, 667.887264, 650.754281, 631.089673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 640.099976, "volume": 7959, "typical_volume": 7658.85, "trend": 611.763328, "fair_value": 491.630536, "relative_strength": 4.862468, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.801973, "energy": 26.173104, "activity_lines": [ 653.526648, 662.458169, 652.109517, 633.034618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 633.700012, "volume": 6435, "typical_volume": 7467.2, "trend": 613.659996, "fair_value": 493.335024, "relative_strength": 2.009032, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.937478, "energy": 25.288248, "activity_lines": [ 645.35999, 656.2709, 652.499995, 634.449887 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 670.400024, "volume": 3177, "typical_volume": 7362.25, "trend": 616.426662, "fair_value": 495.345601, "relative_strength": 5.184882, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.574807, "energy": 28.683878, "activity_lines": [ 651.326668, 657.419996, 656.02095, 638.110534 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }