{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4b462c0-248f-4a1f-a913-ca6cc10eb6b8", "symbol": "GOW", "name": "Gowing Bros. Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.687, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.328, "architecture_energy": 15.204, "architecture_maturity": 14.115, "architecture_confidence": 78.595, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.11, "rotation_up": 27.03, "upward_expansion": 14.29, "deceleration": 28.62, "rotation_down": 36.1, "downward_expansion": 62.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.181333, 2.184182, 2.186907, 2.191474 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.19, "trend_reference": 2.198996, "distance_from_trend": -0.004091, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.140746, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023008, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.140354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026435, "excess_performance": -0.09014, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004091, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007341, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023008, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030284, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061404, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091939, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026435, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.841862, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108129, "relative_activity": 4.880337, "balance": 1.841862, "dry_up": 1.502332, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040393, "annualized_volatility": 0.212239, "from_high_reference": -0.081854, "from_low_reference": 0.063107 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.198996, "fair_value_reference": 2.140746, "structural_low": 2.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.006977, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.346154, "median_excess_return": -0.014542, "regime_survival": 0.653846, "best_return": 0.050542, "worst_return": -0.068966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009302, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.025136, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.058824, "worst_return": -0.15534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.004484, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.019561, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.073004, "worst_return": -0.207894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.04263, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.086349, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.022394, "worst_return": -0.148649, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016155, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026415, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0181, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056338, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079295, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029661, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004386, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013453, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045825, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070485, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035242, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.272448, "volume": 41985, "typical_volume": 40456.3, "trend": 2.436931, "fair_value": 2.291979, "relative_strength": -8.187201, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.971141, "energy": 11.22482, "activity_lines": [ 2.211333, 2.188727, 2.194399, 2.198969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.16, "volume": 3132, "typical_volume": 18147.5, "trend": 2.20528, "fair_value": 2.142059, "relative_strength": -2.391052, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.79465, "energy": 18.045445, "activity_lines": [ 2.197333, 2.184545, 2.191107, 2.195813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.15, "volume": 11697, "typical_volume": 16939.6, "trend": 2.201964, "fair_value": 2.141274, "relative_strength": -5.000051, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.889409, "energy": 17.022558, "activity_lines": [ 2.183333, 2.180545, 2.186912, 2.192246 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.19, "volume": 108129, "typical_volume": 22156.05, "trend": 2.198996, "fair_value": 2.140746, "relative_strength": -6.140354, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.327759, "energy": 15.204418, "activity_lines": [ 2.181333, 2.184182, 2.186907, 2.191474 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }