{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4b689e0-b3ed-4990-ae59-5bfe551349af", "symbol": "300045", "name": "Hwa Create Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.485, "architecture_energy": 84.36, "architecture_maturity": 46.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.035, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.84, "rotation_up": 9.48, "upward_expansion": 20.68, "deceleration": 37.77, "rotation_down": 76.13, "downward_expansion": 94.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.224, 14.768364, 17.254, 19.017075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.52, "trend_reference": 21.712, "distance_from_trend": -0.377303, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.061154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.35806, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.823893, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.501659, "excess_performance": -0.509058, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.377303, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113627, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.35806, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.51129, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.418239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271511, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.501659, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.202353, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85386460, "relative_activity": 0.916134, "balance": 1.202353, "dry_up": 1.319123, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171598, "annualized_volatility": 0.576682, "from_high_reference": -0.649741, "from_low_reference": 0.279092 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.712, "fair_value_reference": 21.061154, "structural_low": 10.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.024179, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.001687, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.332041, "worst_return": -0.247937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.04209, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.015821, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.504837, "worst_return": -0.146053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.21776, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.05052, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.368334, "worst_return": -0.232861, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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21.01968, "relative_strength": -30.242228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.76694, "energy": 63.283137, "activity_lines": [ 17.632667, 18.500728, 20.084762, 21.581721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.44, "volume": 100003569, "typical_volume": 92593863.7, "trend": 23.172333, "fair_value": 21.037885, "relative_strength": -37.040801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.477114, "energy": 70.512152, "activity_lines": [ 16.532667, 17.548546, 19.425905, 20.997463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.46, "volume": 112213205, "typical_volume": 88713759.55, "trend": 22.728667, "fair_value": 21.0375, "relative_strength": -49.768186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.153059, "energy": 82.997256, "activity_lines": [ 14.692, 16.221455, 18.543572, 20.241828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.45, "volume": 194181665, "typical_volume": 93036912.05, "trend": 22.225, "fair_value": 21.043526, "relative_strength": -44.143831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.707899, "energy": 85.315847, "activity_lines": [ 13.634, 15.306727, 17.821143, 19.578688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.52, "volume": 85386460, "typical_volume": 93203019.85, "trend": 21.712, "fair_value": 21.061154, "relative_strength": -41.823893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.485071, "energy": 84.360262, "activity_lines": [ 13.224, 14.768364, 17.254, 19.017075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }