{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4b9f6a8-32ae-4076-9a45-6965fb9da122", "symbol": "RITA", "name": "ETF SERIES SOLUTIONS ETFB GREEN SRI REITS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.332, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.254, "architecture_energy": 55.701, "architecture_maturity": 36.542, "architecture_confidence": 72.228, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.65, "rotation_up": 62.2, "upward_expansion": 83.93, "deceleration": 49.23, "rotation_down": 15.17, "downward_expansion": 10.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.915033, 21.693946, 21.271523, 20.942755 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.7293, "trend_reference": 20.562013, "distance_from_trend": 0.056769, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.814223, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.15494, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.092018, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079746, "excess_performance": -0.045878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056769, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035945, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.15494, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034767, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03092, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019074, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079746, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.269961, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9281, "relative_activity": 0.843551, "balance": 0.269961, "dry_up": 1.954614, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044494, "annualized_volatility": 0.165611, "from_high_reference": -0.083706, "from_low_reference": 0.174679 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.562013, "fair_value_reference": 18.814223, "structural_low": 18.884002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.005772, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018657, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.082875, "worst_return": -0.062574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.00048, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.043009, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.08137, "worst_return": -0.138985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015856, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.026803, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.138015, "worst_return": -0.087485, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8385.5, "trend": 20.194137, "fair_value": 18.703499, "relative_strength": -2.571542, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.274893, "energy": 42.730485, "activity_lines": [ 21.278754, 21.040025, 20.728495, 20.511822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.087, "volume": 3807, "typical_volume": 8307.65, "trend": 20.293965, "fair_value": 18.728806, "relative_strength": 2.325569, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.297497, "energy": 64.612126, "activity_lines": [ 21.584372, 21.259419, 20.884955, 20.633942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.3834, "volume": 4697, "typical_volume": 8116.85, "trend": 20.39557, "fair_value": 18.758689, "relative_strength": 4.299129, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.25736, "energy": 69.061439, "activity_lines": [ 21.9214, 21.507838, 21.062607, 20.768744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.8464, "volume": 68236, "typical_volume": 11056.6, "trend": 20.482959, "fair_value": 18.787095, "relative_strength": 0.748221, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.683251, "energy": 59.024706, "activity_lines": [ 21.950487, 21.620846, 21.177758, 20.862346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.7293, "volume": 9281, "typical_volume": 11002.3, "trend": 20.562013, "fair_value": 18.814223, "relative_strength": -3.092018, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.254105, "energy": 55.700566, "activity_lines": [ 21.915033, 21.693946, 21.271523, 20.942755 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }