{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4c76dc6-6a8e-4de2-a10a-163c585f773c", "symbol": "TSMU", "name": "T-REX 2X LONG TSM DAILY TARGET ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.504, "architecture_energy": 15.74, "architecture_maturity": 26.761, "architecture_confidence": 71.767, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.7, "rotation_up": 16.82, "upward_expansion": 40.35, "deceleration": 86.61, "rotation_down": 41.01, "downward_expansion": 34.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.821327, 69.449456, 70.214694, 67.400426 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 68.2089, "trend_reference": 63.674863, "distance_from_trend": 0.071206, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.398087, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.688419, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.906264, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.217401, "excess_performance": 0.029947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071206, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184603, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.688419, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.35414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.139063, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.311111, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.217401, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440298, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 248290, "relative_activity": 0.528103, "balance": 0.440298, "dry_up": 1.04236, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189727, "annualized_volatility": 0.656134, "from_high_reference": -0.268851, "from_low_reference": 1.626156 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.674863, "fair_value_reference": 40.398087, "structural_low": 43.7601, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072604, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071625, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 22.8419, "volume": 6902, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 23.7297, "volume": 28695, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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"relative_strength": 14.788474, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.822928, "energy": 15.695852, "activity_lines": [ 68.132893, 71.908055, 70.338759, 66.995968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.65, "volume": 510620, "typical_volume": 473165.0, "trend": 63.0499, "fair_value": 40.089078, "relative_strength": 12.779103, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.735436, "energy": 16.929276, "activity_lines": [ 65.80286, 70.217249, 70.089612, 67.067588 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.2089, "volume": 248290, "typical_volume": 470154.9, "trend": 63.674863, "fair_value": 40.398087, "relative_strength": 13.906264, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.504338, "energy": 15.739994, "activity_lines": [ 65.821327, 69.449456, 70.214694, 67.400426 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }