{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4c90f96-b2a2-41b7-88f4-22e1a48f15fc", "symbol": "688633", "name": "Nantong Xingqiu Graphite Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.847, "architecture_energy": 66.22, "architecture_maturity": 15.958, "architecture_confidence": 67.821, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.04, "rotation_up": 16.32, "upward_expansion": 23.41, "deceleration": 43.07, "rotation_down": 67.39, "downward_expansion": 60.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.175334, 25.026995, 27.695086, 27.839501 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.18, "trend_reference": 27.617533, "distance_from_trend": -0.124469, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.81215, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.277953, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.078155, "excess_performance": -0.034951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124469, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034727, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.063232, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.441523, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.314352, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078155, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.752927, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17374188, "relative_activity": 0.814318, "balance": 0.752927, "dry_up": 0.930095, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137963, "annualized_volatility": 0.630788, "from_high_reference": -0.379236, "from_low_reference": 0.221829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.617533, "fair_value_reference": 25.81215, "structural_low": 19.790001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.074386, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.046083, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.101869, "worst_return": -0.137818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.031081, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.098072, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096034, "worst_return": -0.158196, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.188873, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.29733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.019867, "worst_return": -0.357879, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019077, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006322, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032407, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021847, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037579, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050928, "active": false }, { "regime": 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21564694, "typical_volume": 20661290.55, "trend": 27.6022, "fair_value": 25.907387, "relative_strength": -19.058164, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.098336, "energy": 62.388387, "activity_lines": [ 23.977815, 26.3658, 28.600286, 28.324215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.51, "volume": 21509741, "typical_volume": 21080878.65, "trend": 27.600867, "fair_value": 25.856625, "relative_strength": -8.748504, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.105101, "energy": 63.407611, "activity_lines": [ 23.292667, 25.536819, 28.111829, 28.060202 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.18, "volume": 17374188, "typical_volume": 21335879.3, "trend": 27.617533, "fair_value": 25.81215, "relative_strength": -8.277953, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.84712, "energy": 66.21964, "activity_lines": [ 23.175334, 25.026995, 27.695086, 27.839501 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }