{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4ce2f32-0b5c-43b7-abfa-afc1fb774d35", "symbol": "5481", "name": "Sino Tactful Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.927, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.872, "architecture_energy": 31.042, "architecture_maturity": 18.467, "architecture_confidence": 83.643, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.11, "rotation_up": 16.84, "upward_expansion": 13.02, "deceleration": 48.32, "rotation_down": 50.02, "downward_expansion": 69.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.953333, 20.336364, 20.323333, 20.675914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.5, "trend_reference": 21.215, "distance_from_trend": -0.080839, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.708974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.058379, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.637434, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.129464, "excess_performance": -0.570836, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080839, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013332, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.058379, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050142, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.366374, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056935, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129464, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.900014, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 303229, "relative_activity": 0.346022, "balance": 1.900014, "dry_up": 0.588931, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093688, "annualized_volatility": 0.343478, "from_high_reference": -0.29982, "from_low_reference": 0.20743 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.215, "fair_value_reference": 20.708974, "structural_low": 17.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.002506, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.018174, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.030418, "worst_return": -0.146465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007456, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049472, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.109244, "worst_return": -0.146465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015209, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.133378, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.069106, "worst_return": -0.43266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.064214, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.046408, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.379182, "worst_return": -0.393939, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041825, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021898, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111524, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.736334, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.349174, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135922, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073937, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146465, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.100592, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021834, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.130719, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086294, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09893, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 13.8, "volume": 928000, "typical_volume": 469400.0, "trend": 12.781667, "fair_value": 12.768691, "relative_strength": -0.321114, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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21.036344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.15, "volume": 879121, "typical_volume": 1088435.95, "trend": 21.53, "fair_value": 20.584936, "relative_strength": -31.579955, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.480659, "energy": 8.79363, "activity_lines": [ 20.91, 20.687273, 20.649286, 21.00785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.0, "volume": 683401, "typical_volume": 1076744.85, "trend": 21.436667, "fair_value": 20.629167, "relative_strength": -33.373341, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.759852, "energy": 10.927672, "activity_lines": [ 20.656667, 20.635455, 20.556905, 20.90914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.65, "volume": 198636, "typical_volume": 1065253.0, "trend": 21.328333, "fair_value": 20.671474, "relative_strength": -35.032595, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.499027, "energy": 20.340763, "activity_lines": [ 20.3, 20.514545, 20.440476, 20.793871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 19.5, "volume": 303229, "typical_volume": 876327.9, "trend": 21.215, "fair_value": 20.708974, "relative_strength": -36.637434, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.871617, "energy": 31.041828, "activity_lines": [ 19.953333, 20.336364, 20.323333, 20.675914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }