{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4d4f1f1-1b9c-4785-b867-f3db5ca6b559", "symbol": "6639", "name": "Grand Green Energy Co., LTD.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.343, "architecture_energy": 90.207, "architecture_maturity": 36.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.343, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 10.51, "upward_expansion": 21.81, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 80.2, "downward_expansion": 97.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.775333, 5.248, 6.032857, 6.622237 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.5, "trend_reference": 7.426667, "distance_from_trend": -0.394075, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.392496, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.605003, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -59.678374, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.505495, "excess_performance": -0.946867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.394075, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067236, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.605003, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198059, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.596784, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170827, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.505495, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.207802, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 444573, "relative_activity": 1.060345, "balance": 0.207802, "dry_up": 1.108044, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154359, "annualized_volatility": 0.477555, "from_high_reference": -0.606987, "from_low_reference": 0.097561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.426667, "fair_value_reference": 11.392496, "structural_low": 4.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.00951, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021953, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.223301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.004831, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.054542, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.97, "worst_return": -0.200772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.065574, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.171556, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.912621, "worst_return": -0.268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.121567, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.414711, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.521235, "worst_return": -0.318631, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032353, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014925, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038123, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067073, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042484, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072464, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.13245, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.358364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.309278, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.524024, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121339, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041005, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079433, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.244966, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 15.718323, "volume": 606483, "typical_volume": 384297.8, "trend": 16.17008, "fair_value": 13.130653, "relative_strength": 6.41733, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"down", "direction": -64.490713, "energy": 73.329217, "activity_lines": [ 6.130667, 6.466909, 7.088095, 7.478602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.8, "volume": 113722, "typical_volume": 389011.6, "trend": 7.733, "fair_value": 11.687103, "relative_strength": -48.718809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.569286, "energy": 76.062352, "activity_lines": [ 5.994, 6.289273, 6.923619, 7.351204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.15, "volume": 530188, "typical_volume": 405216.45, "trend": 7.666333, "fair_value": 11.614559, "relative_strength": -54.69591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.114923, "energy": 85.594964, "activity_lines": [ 5.687333, 6.031091, 6.712238, 7.184559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.21, "volume": 160069, "typical_volume": 399122.35, "trend": 7.595, "fair_value": 11.544959, "relative_strength": -52.692135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.549214, "energy": 84.081986, "activity_lines": [ 5.49, 5.822909, 6.522048, 7.026086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.35, "volume": 723457, "typical_volume": 422966.2, "trend": 7.514667, "fair_value": 11.476244, "relative_strength": -60.525748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.396652, "energy": 92.57857, "activity_lines": [ 5.056, 5.495455, 6.261143, 6.816731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 4.5, "volume": 444573, "typical_volume": 419272.1, "trend": 7.426667, "fair_value": 11.392496, "relative_strength": -59.678374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.343095, "energy": 90.207369, "activity_lines": [ 4.775333, 5.248, 6.032857, 6.622237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }