{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b4d5e5e6-f4b3-4fa3-8473-907e77478df1",
    "symbol": "JPSRE",
    "name": "UBS MSCI Japan Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hEUR acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 81.446,
    "architecture_energy": 67.661,
    "architecture_maturity": 86.321,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.202,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.37,
        "rotation_up": 54.99,
        "upward_expansion": 83.0,
        "deceleration": 71.37,
        "rotation_down": 27.89,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        33.719595,
        32.877935
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 35.599998,
    "trend_reference": 31.93,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.114939,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 24.113147,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.476373,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 2.164275,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.159609,
    "excess_performance": -0.011283,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.114939,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059559,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.476373,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.103519,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021643,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.018492,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.159609,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.109153,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 16948,
      "relative_activity": 2.846848,
      "balance": 2.109153,
      "dry_up": 1.612733,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.024449,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.193715,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002661,
      "from_low_reference": 0.418327
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 31.93,
      "fair_value_reference": 24.113147,
      "structural_low": 28.370001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 42,
        "median_return": 0.012985,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002995,
        "regime_survival": 0.785714,
        "best_return": 0.076287,
        "worst_return": -0.066491,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
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        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.017945,
        "regime_survival": 0.733333,
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        "worst_return": -0.054326,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.069831,
        "sufficient": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 9344.9,
        "trend": 29.424833,
        "fair_value": 22.67734,
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "trend": 29.965167,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 9601.75,
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        "relative_strength": 3.758613,
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 3.129144,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 74.746854,
        "energy": 87.504546,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.655333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 34.955002,
        "volume": 80,
        "typical_volume": 5536.45,
        "trend": 31.053,
        "fair_value": 23.568,
        "relative_strength": 3.035582,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 88.100875,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 36,
        "typical_volume": 5456.95,
        "trend": 31.26,
        "fair_value": 23.679808,
        "relative_strength": 3.84398,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.316946,
        "energy": 94.183186,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.609333,
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          32.704643,
          32.045968
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 34.75,
        "volume": 2209,
        "typical_volume": 5462.5,
        "trend": 31.438333,
        "fair_value": 23.787692,
        "relative_strength": 3.779594,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.157515,
        "energy": 87.56504,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.771333,
          34.178182,
          32.986619,
          32.271129
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 34.470001,
        "volume": 436,
        "typical_volume": 5288.05,
        "trend": 31.606167,
        "fair_value": 23.892538,
        "relative_strength": 2.862305,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.624763,
        "energy": 84.86017,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.711,
          34.325364,
          33.227881,
          32.46672
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 34.145,
        "volume": 18811,
        "typical_volume": 5820.25,
        "trend": 31.765,
        "fair_value": 23.998917,
        "relative_strength": 1.034369,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.849033,
        "energy": 63.368949,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.543333,
          34.371455,
          33.415524,
          32.630516
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 35.599998,
        "volume": 16948,
        "typical_volume": 5953.25,
        "trend": 31.93,
        "fair_value": 24.113147,
        "relative_strength": 2.164275,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.445789,
        "energy": 67.661373,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.843999,
          34.651182,
          33.719595,
          32.877935
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}