{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4d679d8-18e0-49b1-95eb-b28f93f11d92", "symbol": "TUI1", "name": "TUI AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 90.294, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.279, "architecture_energy": 34.297, "architecture_maturity": 15.917, "architecture_confidence": 55.599, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.83, "rotation_up": 55.24, "upward_expansion": 39.81, "deceleration": 27.55, "rotation_down": 20.84, "downward_expansion": 26.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.3816, 7.288473, 7.106038, 7.11976 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.722, "trend_reference": 7.361554, "distance_from_trend": 0.048963, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.49533, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030242, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.707273, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.161328, "excess_performance": -0.335575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048963, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046821, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030242, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146896, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082118, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161328, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.593714, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1123, "relative_activity": 1.097323, "balance": 0.593714, "dry_up": 0.723813, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048413, "annualized_volatility": 0.419287, "from_high_reference": -0.177925, "from_low_reference": 0.263416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.361554, "fair_value_reference": 7.49533, "structural_low": 6.112, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.043154, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.059602, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.043154, "worst_return": 0.043154, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007895, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06805, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 6.476438, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 6.790866, "volume": 140, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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7.492452, "relative_strength": -26.319804, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.246947, "energy": 14.643029, "activity_lines": [ 7.070533, 7.094945, 6.967895, 7.094341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.542, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1078.4, "trend": 7.411991, "fair_value": 7.492969, "relative_strength": -18.723915, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.39844, "energy": 9.275197, "activity_lines": [ 7.200667, 7.184182, 7.030657, 7.099759 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.722, "volume": 1123, "typical_volume": 1023.4, "trend": 7.361554, "fair_value": 7.49533, "relative_strength": -18.707273, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.278745, "energy": 34.29681, "activity_lines": [ 7.3816, 7.288473, 7.106038, 7.11976 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }