{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4d72c08-0a6f-4607-822e-4cef2ee9e77a", "symbol": "EXALT", "name": "Exalt AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.767, "architecture_energy": 13.917, "architecture_maturity": 66.669, "architecture_confidence": 88.672, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.89, "rotation_up": 25.3, "upward_expansion": 16.25, "deceleration": 34.33, "rotation_down": 33.82, "downward_expansion": 59.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.314533, 0.313709, 0.322743, 0.325243 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.316, "trend_reference": 0.330467, "distance_from_trend": -0.043776, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.427942, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.261583, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.668357, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.053333, "excess_performance": -0.008161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043776, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078282, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.261583, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043258, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046245, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.623413, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34893, "relative_activity": 0.689989, "balance": 0.623413, "dry_up": 0.737171, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.183544, "annualized_volatility": 0.894042, "from_high_reference": -0.386408, "from_low_reference": 0.385965 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.330467, "fair_value_reference": 0.427942, "structural_low": 0.228, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.011286, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.004366, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.231959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.026667, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.039527, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.129841, "worst_return": -0.147273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.048626, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.099061, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.134259, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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4471, "typical_volume": 48745.15, "trend": 0.342467, "fair_value": 0.432647, "relative_strength": -24.823891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.185897, "energy": 39.381967, "activity_lines": [ 0.308, 0.318, 0.328667, 0.331527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.336, "volume": 28000, "typical_volume": 47327.0, "trend": 0.3414, "fair_value": 0.43166, "relative_strength": -18.09039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.817151, "energy": 29.303568, "activity_lines": [ 0.3152, 0.320509, 0.329238, 0.33111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.272, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 45914.55, "trend": 0.337333, "fair_value": 0.430442, "relative_strength": -34.005307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.396931, "energy": 40.054706, "activity_lines": [ 0.302133, 0.310873, 0.323638, 0.326632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.334, "volume": 85223, "typical_volume": 48825.7, "trend": 0.3342, "fair_value": 0.429122, "relative_strength": -19.624898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.02304, "energy": 18.255346, "activity_lines": [ 0.312533, 0.314073, 0.324143, 0.326417 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.316, "volume": 34893, "typical_volume": 50570.35, "trend": 0.330467, "fair_value": 0.427942, "relative_strength": -24.668357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.767353, "energy": 13.917412, "activity_lines": [ 0.314533, 0.313709, 0.322743, 0.325243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }