{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4e0bf05-1bc8-4070-bb1b-169011a99ddc", "symbol": "002858", "name": "Lisheng Sports (Shanghai) Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.851, "architecture_energy": 55.227, "architecture_maturity": 61.968, "architecture_confidence": 95.672, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 26.67, "upward_expansion": 9.71, "deceleration": 59.59, "rotation_down": 52.72, "downward_expansion": 83.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.999333, 11.077455, 12.315905, 13.181785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.52, "trend_reference": 14.255333, "distance_from_trend": -0.191881, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.615769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.153922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.463435, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.28, "excess_performance": -0.2874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.191881, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076906, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.153922, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.306263, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234634, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169285, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.28, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.410689, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24465800, "relative_activity": 0.817439, "balance": 0.410689, "dry_up": 1.011597, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10637, "annualized_volatility": 0.439286, "from_high_reference": -0.358932, "from_low_reference": 0.182752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.255333, "fair_value_reference": 13.615769, "structural_low": 9.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.013244, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012236, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.376289, "worst_return": -0.143204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041417, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.055163, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.258763, "worst_return": -0.176085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.210444, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.136838, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.228302, "worst_return": -0.304005, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.51, "volume": 26820248, "typical_volume": 29641203.85, "trend": 14.678667, "fair_value": 13.824167, "relative_strength": -28.909931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.778329, "energy": 88.636272, "activity_lines": [ 10.876, 11.583273, 13.100095, 13.864903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.12, "volume": 38321731, "typical_volume": 30062940.4, "trend": 14.498333, "fair_value": 13.745256, "relative_strength": -31.264786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.52908, "energy": 86.620587, "activity_lines": [ 10.533333, 11.161273, 12.731905, 13.570796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.32, "volume": 31499800, "typical_volume": 30229985.4, "trend": 14.371333, "fair_value": 13.674872, "relative_strength": -21.403328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.371257, "energy": 65.601714, "activity_lines": [ 10.745333, 11.075273, 12.504714, 13.365742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.52, "volume": 24465800, "typical_volume": 29929805.4, "trend": 14.255333, "fair_value": 13.615769, "relative_strength": -23.463435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.850689, "energy": 55.227273, "activity_lines": [ 10.999333, 11.077455, 12.315905, 13.181785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }