{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b4e17e89-707e-48cd-9b87-9e388b2121d1", "symbol": "UB02", "name": "UBS Core MSCI Japan UCITS ETF JPY dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.828, "architecture_energy": 27.074, "architecture_maturity": 61.005, "architecture_confidence": 91.73, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.33, "rotation_up": 31.73, "upward_expansion": 58.14, "deceleration": 88.27, "rotation_down": 29.73, "downward_expansion": 21.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 5771.366667, 5788.1, 5725.509524, 5638.480559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5950.0, "trend_reference": 5537.273031, "distance_from_trend": 0.074536, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4577.324374, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.299886, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.230672, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.094447, "excess_performance": 0.043212, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074536, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047421, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.299886, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039096, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042307, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023499, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094447, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.0349, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26182, "relative_activity": 0.46185, "balance": 3.0349, "dry_up": 0.368993, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030654, "annualized_volatility": 0.213355, "from_high_reference": -0.014582, "from_low_reference": 0.286041 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5537.273031, "fair_value_reference": 4577.324374, "structural_low": 4976.649902, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.024492, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.001227, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.059299, "worst_return": -0.101913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.016428, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.00377, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.106141, "worst_return": -0.034766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082171, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.042231, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.174131, "worst_return": -0.097663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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1.854855, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.163349, "energy": 26.966725, "activity_lines": [ 5732.5, 5771.627273, 5679.269048, 5598.523691 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5674.0, "volume": 14451, "typical_volume": 58133.35, "trend": 5513.541406, "fair_value": 4563.627377, "relative_strength": -0.172447, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.002758, "energy": 22.595165, "activity_lines": [ 5699.9, 5755.118182, 5690.340476, 5610.32194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5950.0, "volume": 26182, "typical_volume": 56689.4, "trend": 5537.273031, "fair_value": 4577.324374, "relative_strength": 4.230672, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.828032, "energy": 27.073949, "activity_lines": [ 5771.366667, 5788.1, 5725.509524, 5638.480559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }